It's The Economy, STUPID!.....

[YoungTulsan]

$100 oil is a result of the dollar's decline, NOT George Bush maniacally having us use too much oil.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan

$100 oil is a result of the dollar's decline, NOT George Bush maniacally having us use too much oil.

Also rampant speculation is pushing it up, too.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan

$100 oil is a result of the dollar's decline, NOT George Bush maniacally having us use too much oil.

Absolutely. Who is responsible for the dollars continued decline? The Busheviks.

Conan, you say "I've not seen solid industry stats, but I do believe capital investment in new drilling and processing equipment is likely back at early 1980's levels. " Many, as you know, have left or sunk since back then. The mere comparrison gives me the jitters. Also, trickle down? More like buy a second home and help Scottsdale, Crested Butte, NYC and Destin.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan

$100 oil is a result of the dollar's decline, NOT George Bush maniacally having us use too much oil.

Absolutely. Who is responsible for the dollars continued decline? The Busheviks.

They do like to print an awful lot of dollars, don't they?

[YoungTulsan]

But people in this thread were trying to make it an issue of actual CONSUMPTION.  Deferring authority over creation of money to a private banking cartel (the Federal Reserve System) is not the same issue as saying that us consuming too much oil is the reason oil has shot up in price.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan

But people in this thread were trying to make it an issue of actual CONSUMPTION.  Deferring authority over creation of money to a private banking cartel (the Federal Reserve System) is not the same issue as saying that us consuming too much oil is the reason oil has shot up in price.

If we're only talking about recent price spikes, then American oil consumption isn't really a factor.  Our consumption level hasn't changed, but several extraneous factors are affecting oil prices now (other consumers -- India and China -- ramping up their consumption; a falling dollar; speculation).  

The fact that we consume far too much oil as a nation is another kettle of fish entirely.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

quote:Originally posted by YoungTulsan

$100 oil is a result of the dollar's decline, NOT George Bush maniacally having us use too much oil.

Absolutely. Who is responsible for the dollars continued decline? The Busheviks.

Conan, you say "I've not seen solid industry stats, but I do believe capital investment in new drilling and processing equipment is likely back at early 1980's levels. " Many, as you know, have left or sunk since back then. The mere comparrison gives me the jitters. Also, trickle down? More like buy a second home and help Scottsdale, Crested Butte, NYC and Destin.

I'm not referring to admin, accounting, and DP jobs which have gone south to Houston.  Tulsa is a major, major hub in oilfield exploration, drilling, measurement, processing, etc equipment.  Much bigger than the average person would think.  We are also one of the major hubs for heat exchanging equipment in the country.

Tulsa has some of the largest shell rolling equipment in the country, we have companies which make and roll tubing of all sorts.  All products which get shipped to various parts of the U.S. and world as finished product or for final assembly.

Two primary vendors my company represents rely on several components manufactured either in Tulsa or within a 100 mile radius of Tulsa.  Components are either shipped from this area to Arizona or Pennsylvania for final assembly, then they make a round trip back to Tulsa.  There are two such component suppliers like that within two blocks of my office.

There are also many smaller oil producers located here who are pumping cash into our economy.  With oil prices I don't see Tulsa's usual 1 year lag behind the rest of the country happening.  One of the worst things which could happen at this point for Tulsa might be oil falling back to $50 a barrel.

I really don't get the point in talking up a recession.  It's counter-productive.  Once the whispers start, companies will halt hiring, slim down, and cut expenditures.  That in itself will cause a real recession.  I'm not an advocate for sticking our collective heads in the sand, but I'm definitely not an advocate for promoting negativity which impacts our livelihood.

[FOTD]

All boats float when the tide rises. Goes down as well.  When you state "Once the whispers start, companies will halt hiring, slim down, and cut expenditures " you fail to see that it might be just the time to do cautionary tightening. If leveraged, recession or not, companies better understand what's unfolding.

[YoungTulsan]

The financial system is screwed, and will be for a little while.  How bad it gets, who knows?

Doom and gloom aside, Tulsa is a good place to be (better than most places in the US) right now, and through any recession or depression when or if they are to come.  As the rest of the country suffers from expensive oil, Tulsa's economy is pumped up.  We didn't get too involved in the housing bubble, so the mortgage meltdown is treating us very lightly.

Hell, even financially, BOKF seems to be doing a lot better than most financial institutions.

[TheArtist]

My hope is that Tulsas economy stays in the plus category during this downturn. It will obviously feel negative pressures, but even if we muster a tiny bit of growth while others are suffering, I count that as a positive.

I can actually see a scenario playing out in which Tulsas positive news enhances our growth potential because others see it as one of the few bright spots. Now IMO is a time to tout Tulsas strengths to the outside world, not go playing up every little negative. Also, if we hang in there and make steady progress downtown, and things like the River District actually happen as hoped. Once the national economy gets back on the ball again, Tulsa could, for a change, be in a great position to "catch the wave". We often seem to be just behind the curve, but this next time we could shine.

[Conan71]

Artist, I know you have been working on one major project for some time.  Have you seen any change in inquiries and commissions for your residential artwork?  I figure that's pretty much a luxury to a homeowner, if the economy is too brutal, I'd think your business would be off, or even rumors of recession might get someone to hold off using your services.

[TheArtist]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

Artist, I know you have been working on one major project for some time.  Have you seen any change in inquiries and commissions for your residential artwork?  I figure that's pretty much a luxury to a homeowner, if the economy is too brutal, I'd think your business would be off, or even rumors of recession might get someone to hold off using your services.

Its hard for me to tell since most know I am "off the market" for a while. I have still been getting the occasional call from the usual decorators and such, but have only been able to squeeze in smaller things just to keep them happy till I can get back in the game. After I am done in June with this big job I already have about 2 months worth lined up.   But honestly I have been a bit worried. My kind of work truly is the "canary in the coal mine" sort of thing. A luxury thats easily put off or cancelled. My assistant keeps telling me that most of our clients are wealthy enough that these things dont really affect them and what we offer isnt really that expensive to them regardless.

Also a lady that we often work with, Carolyn Finch, who does faux finishes in upper middle to high end homes keeps saying she is as busy as ever. Has a crew of 5 or 6 people and can barely keep up. I am still suprised at how many nice homes there are still going in out south. It may have slowed down a bit, but they are still plugging out a lot of very nice homes and selling them. Also, most of the people I have been working for, by far, are from other parts of the counry, mainly from the west. Fortunately the Italian look is still in with the high end homes and we are doing a lot of the soft, rubbed off and aged scrollwork designs on ceilings. Walls your competing with, paintings, tapestries, furniture, etc. But if you want to take a room or home up a notch, something beautiful on a ceiling is just the ticket and we got ya covered and we are pretty much it. My poor neck though.

I will probably get a better feel for things this fall after we get back into it and thats usually a busy time for us. People want to get moved into a new house before the holidays, and or want to have something nice done before holiday guests start arriving. But from what I can tell, its still a good market here.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

quote:Originally posted by inteller

just a little blurb from the latest beige book report for district 10, our district:

"Energy
Energy activity continued to expand at a solid pace in late January and February. Most contacts reported steady or increased drilling activity, and producers' expectations for future exploration rose from the last survey period. Several firms reported that shortages of labor continued to constrain drilling activity, but other companies said investments in newer drilling technologies has made recruiting and retaining workers less of an issue. Capital spending plans continued to be strong, and credit conditions were still reported as positive in the industry, with most contacts citing strong cash flows and ample financing opportunities."

that's my sector.  and I can tell you that is accurate.  we are happy people.

Me too to a degree but I think Big Oil needs to be hit with a windfall profit tax.

Keep in mind with reccesion comes lowering the demand. Look for oil to back off after 1-21-09. Just a hunch. $50 a barrel?

I hope we will reach bottom by July! The market is tough right now. No wonder. 2 Trillion on a war for nothing.

oh I see, so you will find it ok if we here on the forum determine that you make more money than you deserve and have to share it with the rest of us?

You live in a fairy tale.

[bokworker]

While the profit numbers for the major oils are huge... their margins are not. If we want to go after companies making "too much" money maybe we should be looking at the companies whose margins are MUCH wider... say maybe MSFT, or GOOG, or INTC....

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by twizzler

quote:Originally posted by bokworker

If we want to go after companies making "too much" money maybe we should be looking at the companies whose margins are MUCH wider... say maybe MSFT, or GOOG, or INTC....

or BOKF


[8D]

nah, they are too busy buying up tulsa.  hope that little investment pays off for them..[}:)]