Nevada Primary

[RecycleMichael]

This is an interesting primary state. Nevada has many unique challenges, including the loosest morals of any state and the most newcomers in the last decade.

I predict that McCain wins, with Guliani barely beating out Romney and Huckabee for second, third and fourth. The lack of evangelicals makes Huckabee fourth here. Romney may get enough bounce from Michigan to make it into second. It will still be close, with all four candidates getting between 15% and 25% of the vote.

I think Obama will beat out Hillary with Edwards third on the democratic side, but again I think they will all be with ten points of each other. The message from Nevada is that nothing is decided for either party. Everybody is still alive heading for both parties to South Carolina.

[RecycleMichael]

Hillary has pulled even with Obama in Nevada as of today.

This race is the most interesting one so far.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

This is an interesting primary state. Nevada has many unique challenges, including the loosest morals of any state and the most newcomers in the last decade.

I predict that McCain wins, with Guliani barely beating out Romney and Huckabee for second, third and fourth. The lack of evangelicals makes Huckabee fourth here. Romney may get enough bounce from Michigan to make it into second. It will still be close, with all four candidates getting between 15% and 25% of the vote.

I think Obama will beat out Hillary with Edwards third on the democratic side, but again I think they will all be with ten points of each other. The message from Nevada is that nothing is decided for either party. Everybody is still alive heading for both parties to South Carolina.

I agree with you on every point except Giuliani.  I think his campaign is more dead in the water than anyone knows. It's certainly almost out of cash.  Here's my suggestion for the line up:  McCain wins, Romney places, Huck shows, with Ron Paul following closely behind (yeah, I know . . . but i think he could have a strong showing in Nevada, which strikes me as more libertarian than the midwest or northeast).  

For the dems, of course, it's an Obama/Hillary toss up with Edwards right behind.

[tim huntzinger]

Whoooooaaaaa Dems! The Clintonistas attempt to suppress the Culinary Workers Union failed, but why even go there? That was an amazing little manuever!  Disenfranchising an entire union because they will not commit to you?  Amazing!

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by tim huntzinger

Whoooooaaaaa Dems! The Clintonistas attempt to suppress the Culinary Workers Union failed, but why even go there? That was an amazing little manuever!  Disenfranchising an entire union because they will not commit to you?  Amazing!

Yeah, I guess it's not so pretty is it?  In this dem's opinion, the Clintons have become largely what they used to be putatively fighting against, which is the establishment.  Which in a sense is a testament to their success, but also proves that the slope is slippery.

I really used to be a huge supporter of the Clintons, and even now Hillary seems to me to bring some important skills to the table.  I would still be happy with her as our president. But the way they're playing the game of late is putting me off my cookies.  "Win at any cost," isn't my idea of how to compete within your party.  That burns too many bridges.  But then, I'm a sucker for inclusion and consensus; there's a reason I'm not in politics.

[FOTD]

Those cork soaker Clintonistas suck!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=1379

"Vegas Strippers Seek Right to Caucus at Their Workplace"

[RecycleMichael]

Giuliani and Thompson are clearly dropping fast. Giuliani has dropped from 18% to 6% in just a week and Thompson from 11% to 8% in the same time period.

I still pick McCain, with Romney second and Huckabee third. Romney has to win Nevada to be seen as a national candidate. I understand he has spent millions there this week. If McCain wins both Nevada and South Carolina, he will have momentum heading into Florida.

[EricP]

Ugh, please no McCain. Am I the only one in the world who watches him consistently speak to please whatever audience he is in front of, contradicting himself as many times as necessary? People called Kerry a flip flop but this guy is absolutely ridiculous. It would appear he has absolutely no beliefs of his own.

[tim huntzinger]

quote:Originally posted by EricP

Ugh, please no McCain. Am I the only one in the world who watches him consistently speak to please whatever audience he is in front of, contradicting himself as many times as necessary? People called Kerry a flip flop but this guy is absolutely ridiculous. It would appear he has absolutely no beliefs of his own.

I find it odd that a man who spent five years being tortured by Asian commies never addresses the Yellow Peril.  And if I hear him say 'My friends . . .' again I will scream.  Wait, what is that I hear? AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[RecycleMichael]

Romney has had a good week in Nevada polls and now looks like the clear front-runner.

It is probably all on looks. He is a close the republicans will ever have to a Vegas showgirl.

[tim huntzinger]

Romney's encounter with the AP reporter was telling.  He is disciplined to a fault, and has difficulty connecting emotionally.  Where Reagan would give a smile and disarm the confrontation, Romney got all huffy like Bush would.

Man, oh, man, though, disenfranchising fellow union sisters and brothers because they support the O.  What is that about? Creepy. Glad that would never happen here!

[RecycleMichael]

That is an overstatement of Hillary's intent.

They have never allowed caucuses inside of casinos before. After Obama got the endorsement of the culinary union, they requested permission to have them there.

Hillary protested, but lost out.

I am not a big Hillary supporter (unless she is the Democratic nominee), but having caucuses in casinos does seem odd. Politics is a gamble, but casinos are so separate from reality that there could be problems with what happens in them, real or perceived.

[akupetsky]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

That is an overstatement of Hillary's intent.

They have never allowed caucuses inside of casinos before. After Obama got the endorsement of the culinary union, they requested permission to have them there.

Hillary protested, but lost out.

I am not a big Hillary supporter (unless she is the Democratic nominee), but having caucuses in casinos does seem odd. Politics is a gamble, but casinos are so separate from reality that there could be problems with what happens in them, real or perceived.

Actually, the campaigns had already agreed on the caucus plan, it was who would get the union endorsement that wasn't clear.  After Obama got the endorsement, the Clinton supporters sued:

(from WSJ blog)
 
Judge Upholds Nevada's Casino Caucuses
June Kronholz reports from Las Vegas on the presidential race.

A federal judge's ruling that Nevada Democrats can hold nine caucuses in Las Vegas Strip casinos Saturday is seen as a boost to Sen. Barack Obama, and a PR blooper for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Ruling from the bench after a two-hour hearing, Judge James Mahan said the state's Democrats "have a First Amendment right to association, to assemble and to set their own rules."

The ruling came after the state teacher's union attempted to stop the casino caucuses, arguing that workers in other parts of the state wouldn't have the same opportunity to caucus on the job. It also argued that the nine Las Vegas caucuses would send up to 10 times as many delegates to the county convention — the next level in a complicated nomination process — as a neighborhood caucus that attracts the same number of participants.

The decision is seen as good news for Obama, who won the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents many of the hotel workers on the Strip, and they're expected to account for most of the casino-caucus participants. Just days after that endorsement, the teachers union filed the suit.

A new poll by the Reno Gazette Journal shows the three Democrats, Clinton, Obama and John Edwards, in a dead heat here. Obama led the poll with 32% to 30% for Clinton and 27% for Edwards. Popularity counts less in a caucus than in a primary, though, and what will decide the outcome is how successful the campaigns are at turning out their supporters.

That magnifies the importance of the endorsement of the Culinary Workers, who are an organizing force here with 60,000 members in Las Vegas.

Clinton has largely claimed ignorance of the teachers union suit, but her husband, former President Bill Clinton, was angry at suggestions that her campaign was behind the caucus challenge. The teachers union hasn't endorsed Clinton, but many of its members support her.

The campaigns had signed-off on the caucus rules last March, and all of them had angled for the Culinary Workers' endorsement.

President Clinton seemed to endorse the suit today by insisting that the "rules ought to be the same for everybody." But political observers here see the suit as sour grapes because it was filed it only after the Clinton campaign didn't receive the Culinary Workers' support.

[inteller]

doesnt matter anyways...hillary won.  As usual, the union did NOT speak for its members with the endorsement.

[RecycleMichael]

The unions clearly do not have the power they used to...at least for endorsements. The unions still can mobilize workers to canvass, make signs, pack a room, etc.

There were nine big casino caucuses and Hillary won seven of them today.

Hillary works her campaign well. She won in Nevada based on groundwork laid months ago. Almost all the elected democrats in the state endorsed her. I don't want to hear the pundits say it was because she cried.

The real story of Nevada is the big Romney win. Money matters and he spent lots there. Ron Paul gets a big boost by finishing second and Huckabee gets embarrassed by finishing fifth. I am guessing church values aren't as important to Nevada residents as they are in the south.

McCain finished third in Nevada, but national polls now have him in the lead among republicans.

This race is about getting delegates now. Every delegate counts and I now predict both conventions to start without a sure fire winner. A brokered convention that might take vote after vote before a winner is declared will be fascinating television.

The republican and democrat conventions will be the reality tv show of the year.

Candidates will stay in the race just to keep getting a few delegates in each state. Delegates will be a currency for issue positions and appointments both.