South Carolina Primary

[RecycleMichael]

Nevada is a caucus, South Carolina is a primary. I think South Carolina can become the real trendsetter this month and the winners will have momentum going into Florida and Super Tuesday.

Obama wins easily in South Carolina. There is a large African American population in the state and Obama has spent considerable money there. Hillary finishes second and Edwards, although a southerner, still gets just under 20% of the vote.

I predict a McCain win with Huckabee second and Thompson and Romney just behind for thrid and fourth. Romney has finished no worse than second so far and a third or fourth place here would spell trouble. Huckabee is the surprise, with evangelicals coming to the polls in surprisingly large numbers. This is also where Thompson has to make a move. He too is a southerner and if he can't get 20% here, he can't anywhere. Look for Giliani to be pressured to get out, but he has put everything into Florida and will stay till then. Florida is wide open, with four republican candidates with three points of each other.

[we vs us]

SC is a momentum moment for Huckabee, as well.  It will prove whether his Iowa win was a fluke or if he's a bona fide phenomenon.  A goodly amount of evangelicals down there. I'm not sure that McCain will get much support there, either; SC, after all, was where Bush's campaign smeared him so successfully in 2000 that he had to quit the race soon after.  I'm assuming that at least some of that memory is still around.  Romney, because he's slick and because he's a Mormon, does as well as can be expected in the Deep South. I pick Huck for the win, McCain will place, and Romney will show. Everyone else is below the fold.

And yeah, it's Obama's to win.  The Clinton campaign, IMO, made a serious mistake all last week in fighting with Obama over race.  I'm not sure how they EXPECTED that to turn out, but from the coverage I've seen, it's just shoring up his rep and undermining theirs.  

And Edwards remains, as he has up till now, in third place.

So my question is, why does the MSM give Edwards such respect?  His numbers don't really seem that great on paper, and yet they're giving him some serious leverage (look at the three-man debate last night). Or has the media decided that the top three of each party get attention and everyone else gets ignored?

[RecycleMichael]

McCain is the choice for the republicans this year. They know they are going to get beat in November, but with John McCain, they will lose with respect.

As Richard Reeves put it, he is the perfect candidate for a dying party. The other guys will still be around for the new and improved republican party that rises from the ashes of the fire that has been George Bush.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

McCain is the choice for the republicans this year. They know they are going to get beat in November, but with John McCain, they will lose with respect.

As Richard Reeves put it, he is the perfect candidate for a dying party. The other guys will still be around for the new and improved republican party that rises from the ashes of the fire that has been George Bush.

Excellent, excellent point.

Now if only the rest of the party will go that quietly, cf. Huckabee, Paul, et.al.

[rwarn17588]

I dunno, man ... I think Romney's going to be the guy to beat for the GOP nom.

McCain just doesn't do that well in gaining the vote of hard-care Republicans.

Romney being the front-runner is indicative how weak the GOP field is, however. Romney has a lot of credibility problems, and I swear he sounds like a robot when he talks. You have to look hard to see any soul there.

[spoonbill]

I don't think McCain has much of a chance with Republicans.  He's not a real Republican or a Conservative.  No Republican is going to forget what he did through campaign finance reform bill, that made it so that only the most wealthy can run for office.

I think Romney may be the real candidate and I also think the Huckabee is being underestimated.  All it takes is a good debate to turn the tides.  

On the Democrat side, I think Obama is going to crush Clinton.  She is not accustom to playing nice.  Obama seems to be very good at the passive aggressive thing, and with this MLK issue he's made here look like an idiot (or I should say, that she's made herself look like an idiot).

At the end of the day on the Dem's side, it will come down to emotion.  


Come on, why can't you guys vote for Dennis?  
He's got a hot wife!

[Hawkins]

So McCain is this election's Bob Dole?

I can see that. I'm also of the opinion that the Republicans stand little-to-no chance of holding onto the White House this time around.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by Hawkins

So McCain is this election's Bob Dole?

I can see that. I'm also of the opinion that the Republicans stand little-to-no chance of holding onto the White House this time around.

sorry, but in this post 9/11 world, people are not going to elect a pres without military experience.

McCain is going to end up in the White House.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by inteller

quote:Originally posted by Hawkins

So McCain is this election's Bob Dole?

I can see that. I'm also of the opinion that the Republicans stand little-to-no chance of holding onto the White House this time around.

sorry, but in this post 9/11 world, people are not going to elect a pres without military experience.

McCain is going to end up in the White House.

Well, at least he'll end up as the (R) candidate.  Hate to say, it, though.  Barring an October style surprise, this is the Dem's year.  Pretty much all the data points indicate that D's have the interest, activism, and candidates to make this a watershed year.

[RecycleMichael]

As I predicted, McCain wins, Huckabee is second and Thompson beating out Romney for third.

Giuliani finishes sixth, with only half the votes of Ron Paul.

How does Giuliani stay around and get any money?

[inteller]

when thompson drops out and throws his support behind mccain, it will devestate guilliani and he'll lose florida, and will quit.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

As I predicted, McCain wins, Huckabee is second and Thompson beating out Romney for third.

Giuliani finishes sixth, with only half the votes of Ron Paul.

How does Giuliani stay around and get any money?

Giuliani has to stay in through Feb 5, if only to validate his strategy.  He'll lose big, though, and will be out at that point.  

From what I've read, as far as cash goes, he's running on fumes at this point.

[pmcalk]

Who caught the SC debates last night?

Even though I don't like the candidates going negative, I think Obama was right to challenge Clinton and her false statements about his records.  Lately, I think the Clintons have been adopting the "Karl Rove" approach to campaigning.  

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

Who caught the SC debates last night?

Even though I don't like the candidates going negative, I think Obama was right to challenge Clinton and her false statements about his records.  Lately, I think the Clintons have been adopting the "Karl Rove" approach to campaigning.  

I turned the channel and caught the exchange about WalMart and Revco. My wife and I both laughed out loud. Our take was that either one of them proved they have the grit to run against a Karl Rove advised Republican. Neither flinched, neither backed down and both were prepared. Edwards was screwed, blued, tatooed. Of course the press didn't see it that way.

[pmcalk]

^I agree.  One of the concerns about Obama has been that he's too nice, that he's naive when it comes to politics and couldn't stand up to Republicans.  Last night, he showed that he can push back when he needs to.

But I actually thought Edwards did all right last night.  I thought he did better than he has in the past.  He did better than Clinton, IMO.