Super Tuesday

[RecycleMichael]

We are just a week away...

22 states...Hillary wins 17 or 18 of them. Obama wins Illinois, Colorado, Alabama and Georgia and maybe one other. In Oklahoma, Edwards knocks Obama to third.

The republican results on Tuesday will more even between McCain and Romney. McCain wins the biggest ones, California and New York, Romney gets his home state of Massachusetts and again Colorado but loses near home Connecticut. Romney gets killed in the south and the west and Huckabee does very well in south winning Oklahoma and home state Arkansas.

After Tuesday night, Hillary will be way ahead but not complete and McCain considerably ahead of the others in republican delegates.

[Townsend]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

We are just a week away...

22 states...Hillary wins 17 or 18 of them. Obama wins Illinois, Colorado, Alabama and Georgia and maybe one other. In Oklahoma, Edwards knocks Obama to third.

The republican results on Tuesday will more even between McCain and Romney. McCain wins the biggest ones, California and New York, Romney gets his home state of Massachusetts and again Colorado but loses near home Connecticut. Romney gets killed in the south and the west and Huckabee does very well in south winning Oklahoma and home state Arkansas.

After Tuesday night, Hillary will be way ahead but not complete and McCain considerably ahead of the others in republican delegates.

Your Magic 8 Ball's kung fu is way mightier than my Magic 8 Ball's Kung Fu

[guido911]

Let's see what happens in Florida. Money has got to start drying up for some of these Republican candidates. Also, 1) the Hillary-Obama soap opera may have more surprises around the corner; and 2) there is still time for Hillary to cry in an effort to turn around the voters in her birth state of Illinois.

[spoonbill]

quote:Originally posted by guido911

Let's see what happens in Florida. Money has got to start drying up for some of these Republican candidates. Also, 1) the Hillary-Obama soap opera may have more surprises around the corner; and 2) there is still time for Hillary to cry in an effort to turn around the voters in her birth state of Illinois.

I suspect she has some massive ugliness up her sleeve for Mr. Obama!  

[pmcalk]

I think Obama will also win Idaho, and possibly Tennessee.  Given McCaskill's endorsement, he has a shot a Missouri, and Kennedy's support will certainly make a difference in Massachusetts.  He might also end up with Minnesota.  Hillary will take her home state, and its surroundings, and likely California.

I agree about Oklahoma--it tends to follow the beat of a different drummer when electing democratic nominees.  Edwards may win his first state here.

[spoonbill]

The Movie hits before Tuesday!

Hillary The Movie

[guido911]

quote:Originally posted by spoonbill

The Movie hits before Tuesday!

Hillary The Movie

And the hits keep coming.

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Hillary%27s+word:+It%27s+worth+nothing&articleId=0853268a-d982-4190-81e8-740ae942f510

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

I think Obama will also win Idaho, and possibly Tennessee.  Given McCaskill's endorsement, he has a shot a Missouri, and Kennedy's support will certainly make a difference in Massachusetts.  He might also end up with Minnesota.  Hillary will take her home state, and its surroundings, and likely California.

I agree about Oklahoma--it tends to follow the beat of a different drummer when electing democratic nominees.  Edwards may win his first state here.

I haven't seen any polling in Idaho since July.

Tennessee is interesting for the democrats. I show Hillary double digits ahead. The real interesting story of Tennessee is on the republican side. Fred Thompson was a shoo-in before he dropped out, now Huckabee is in the lead and everybody else scrambling for Fred-heads. I see most of them going to the more conservative candidate which bodes poorly for McCain. I predict Huckabee gets half of them and Romney gets the rest, which means McCain finishes a very poor third.  

Kennedy's help in Massachusetts will be interesting. If she wins there after almost the entire Kennedy compound endorses Obama, it is a clear sign that no one cares what the Kennedy's think.

Why would you think Obama would do better in Minnesota? I haven't seen any polling there since September.

I think Edwards has done quite a bit of work in Missouri. I predict it will be one of the states he gets high teens or low twenties. I think he takes away more votes for Obama as the anti-Hillary candidate than from Hillary as the anti-Obama candidate. That means I think Hillary will win the show-me state.

[Renaissance]

In Tennessee it's Huck - 30, McCain 26, Romney 22.

All will hinge on Florida.  Depends who gets momentum.  If McCain comes on strong, expect him to take the lead in TN.

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

I think Obama will also win Idaho, and possibly Tennessee.  Given McCaskill's endorsement, he has a shot a Missouri, and Kennedy's support will certainly make a difference in Massachusetts.  He might also end up with Minnesota.  Hillary will take her home state, and its surroundings, and likely California.

I agree about Oklahoma--it tends to follow the beat of a different drummer when electing democratic nominees.  Edwards may win his first state here.

I haven't seen any polling in Idaho since July.

Tennessee is interesting for the democrats. I show Hillary double digits ahead. The real interesting story of Tennessee is on the republican side. Fred Thompson was a shoo-in before he dropped out, now Huckabee is in the lead and everybody else scrambling for Fred-heads. I see most of them going to the more conservative candidate which bodes poorly for McCain. I predict Huckabee gets half of them and Romney gets the rest, which means McCain finishes a very poor third.  

Kennedy's help in Massachusetts will be interesting. If she wins there after almost the entire Kennedy compound endorses Obama, it is a clear sign that no one cares what the Kennedy's think.

Why would you think Obama would do better in Minnesota? I haven't seen any polling there since September.

I think Edwards has done quite a bit of work in Missouri. I predict it will be one of the states he gets high teens or low twenties. I think he takes away more votes for Obama as the anti-Hillary candidate than from Hillary as the anti-Obama candidate. That means I think Hillary will win the show-me state.

I am just making stuff up, to make my guy look better.[]

Seriously, the problem with the polls is that they don't state whether they interviewed just democrats or a mix of random voters.  Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri and Idaho are all open primaries/caucuses--areas where Obama does best.  It is very difficult to predict which side people will choose to vote, so I don't believe the polling is very accurate (to the extent that it is ever accurate).  Obama opened up an office first in Idaho, and will be visiting there this weekend.  Minnesota is an independent minded state, and tends to be much more progressive than other states.  In the past, Obama has done better with voters who label themselves as progressive or liberal (which is ironic since he also picks up more of the cross-voters).  I think you are correct that Edwards continues to take some of the non-Clinton vote from Obama, but his strongest support seems to come from union members.  Idaho and Tennessee have very low union numbers, since they are both right to work states.  Edwards does do a bit better in Missouri, but polls still put him well below the 20% mark.  In fact, they only state in which he is above 20% is in Oklahoma.

I could be wrong.  A lot could happen in the next week, but I think you are selling Obama a little short to say he only takes 4 or 5 of the states.  

[RecycleMichael]

My predictions for Super Tuesday are not meant to demean Obama. It is an unprecedented primary election night and Hillary was just first to be running and she locked in many of the party and democrat campaign regulars.

Primaries traditionally have been heavily influenced by the party wonks. Obama has done an incredible job at bringing new people to the process, but unfortunately, it is never enough during the primary season.

People know what they are getting with Hillary. She has been vetted and every part of her personal life and political career have been explored and scrutinized to fine detail. That is part of my fear with Obama...we still don't know that much.

I hope all the skeletons in all the closets get out in January and early February. Then we can move on and discuss the future president and what they will do for all Americans, not just what they have done for themselves.

[pmcalk]

^^I don't disagree--Clinton has been planning to run for a while, and getting a political machine running early on can be very beneficial in places like New York and California, which is why I suspect she will win there (although it didn't seem to help Edwards, who I believe was the first to declare).

Again, though, I don't think it will make a significant difference in some of the smaller and more rural states.  Obama won in the rural areas of Nevada, which is why he got more delegates than Clinton.  Those areas are not as dependent on party machines.

You are right as well--people know what they are getting with Clinton, which may be why so many prominent democrats are endorsing Obama.  I have no doubt that the Kennedy endorsement will have an effect in Massachusetts.  The Kennedy's are legendary there.  I think that having Caroline's endorsement, coupled with the comparison to here father, may have even more signficance.

[dsjeffries]

You know, they only decided to call it Super Tuesday after learning that it's my birthday... [^]

That's all.  []

[si_uk_lon_ok]

I was looking at an Oklahoma tracking poll that has Clinton in a commanding lead.

Poll

The one thing that leapt out at me was the fact that Edwards has very low support among the Black and Latino communities. Does anyone know why this would be the case?

[pmcalk]

Like we said, a lot can happen in a week.  Edwards dropping out changes the whole scenerio.