Can McCain win over conservatives?

[rwarn17588]

<Michael Bates wrote:

Let's do some math. Assume 35% of Republican voters prefer John McCain and 65% can't stand him. If that 65% is spread evenly between two or more candidates -- McCain finishes first in Oklahoma and wins all the delegates, even though the vast majority of Oklahoma voters don't like him.

<end clip>

Those are rash assumptions. The Oklahoma Poll has McCain with 40 percent of the vote, with Huckabee with 19 and Romney with 17.

Even if you combined Huck's and Rom's votes, McCain would still win.

And I see that in many state polls for Super Tuesday, McCain is over the 50 percent mark.

I've seen polling data that shows McCain having high positive numbers and among the very lowest negative numbers from Republicans.

All told, this shows that many, many Republicans would have no problem with voting for McCain if he were the nominee. So to say that a majority of Republicans "don't like" McCain is laying it on thick and flies in the face of the facts.

As near as I can tell, the only ones that have big problems with McCain are the elites (like Limbaugh) and fringe elements. The mainstream GOP has no problem with him.

[cannon_fodder]

Polls at this stage are very dubious, but here is the best source for data of various head to heads:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Clinton v. Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html#upcomingstates

For what it's worth, the most recent polls have Obama ahead in California. Closing 10% gap in about a week.  The guy has a good machine and hits the ground, that's for sure.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588


And I doubt there will be that much acrimony between the Obama and Clinton camps. There is little difference in their platforms. And remember, Hillary was the wife of a popular president. Her supposed unpopularity comes from people who wouldn't vote for her anyway.

Huh?  Been reading the newspapers or listening to the news the last few weeks?  You really think there hasn't been acrimony a-plenty with Kennedy's endorsement of Obama amongst many other things?

You guys need to keep in mind, Michael Bates, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity are but three Republicans.  They don't necessarily speak for an entire party, though that's an easy image to get.  They pontificate their views to people via mass media, but that doesn't mean everyone who listens is in lock-step.

The worst thing someone can do is sit out the political process.  Every vote is important.  It's important every elligible voter participates in our political process.  The problem is, many look for absolutes in who we want for our leaders.  We need to be open-minded and find the one who is closest to represeting our values, not one who absolutely represents our values.

Single issue and party-line voters do annoy me but that is their right instead of staying home on election day.

Truth of the matter is, I dislike Hillary so much I'd never vote for her, I don't trust her intentions and I think she is going to waste valuable time trying to get her un-workable Hillary-care enacted.  McCain is liberal enough, if he runs against Obama, I'll take a closer look at Obama and see which one is better suited to work in a bi-partisan fashion with Congress to make things happen.

No matter who winds up in office, they are going to face Iraq, and I'm certain no one candidate is going to be able to end that conflict any sooner than another, regardless of the current rhetoric.

Agreed. Except the last part.

I'm a cut and run guy like Reagan was......

[FOTD]

And here's why we need to stop asap!
Get the hell out of there......no need to save face. Iraq stole our face.

Going Bankrupt
Why the Debt Crisis Is Now the Greatest Threat to the American Republic
By Chalmers Johnson

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174884

a vote for McCaint is a vote for a third Bush term. GOP=grumpy old party

[rwarn17588]

And in case anyone thinks I'm wrong about McCain being very popular with Republicans, and Obama and Hillary voters not having growing animus to each other, here's a poll from Pew that supports both my contentions.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=392

So just 'cos a pundit says something, doesn't mean it matches with the facts.

[TheArtist]

I wouldn't mind McCain being president. Trying to decide between Hillary and Obama, I have recently been leaning toward Obama. Would be interesting to see how he problem solves, gathers informantion and tackles the issues that confront him. His "compass" seems to be more to my liking, more comfortable to me personally than Hillaries.

[Conan71]

And what did the polls say before Iowa & New Hampshire?  Only polling which matters is the polling we will see in Weds. news.

Problem is, people get polled who don't wind up voting, are disinterested in the political system and have no intention of voting, and people who change their mind or don't know who they will really vote for until they get to the booth.

Here's Hillary's handicap in the general if she gets nominated:

Approx half or more of the Democrat party has not been voting for her to this point and your poll results even bear that out.  Let's say another 25% of Democrats from Obama and Edwards wind up voting for her.  I'm willing to bet less than 15% of registered centrist or slightly liberal Republicans would vote for her.  Worst thing which could happen to McCain is if the ultra-right GOP's stay home in protest.  That is the only scenario I can see which would whisk Hillary into the White House.

I'm banking on Edwards throwing his support behind Obama to get a shot at VP and Richardson being Hillary's choice for VP if she gets the nod at the convention.  I think Edwards has held back his support because he wants to be a viable running mate to either at this point.  Not well noted in the media is Richardson hasn't endorsed anyone either.

McCain has a liberal enough voting record, and there are enough Democrats who simply distrust the Clintons who would be willing to vote for McCain.  He's proven he's Republican in name only.  McCain has the potential to gain a more clear-cut victory in Ohio and Florida against Hillary- two lynch-pins of the last two general elections.

More than anything, I think there's a growing ground-swell of sentiment of: "Anyone other than a Clinton or Bush for the next four years".

Think about it, if Hillary were to win the general election, that would mean our country's highest job will have been monopolized by two families for about 10% of our nation's existence.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

And what did the polls say before Iowa & New Hampshire?  Only polling which matters is the polling we will see in Weds. news.

Problem is, people get polled who don't wind up voting, are disinterested in the political system and have no intention of voting, and people who change their mind or don't know who they will really vote for until they get to the booth.

Here's Hillary's handicap in the general if she gets nominated:

Approx half or more of the Democrat party has not been voting for her to this point and your poll results even bear that out.  Let's say another 25% of Democrats from Obama and Edwards wind up voting for her.  I'm willing to bet less than 15% of registered centrist or slightly liberal Republicans would vote for her.  Worst thing which could happen to McCain is if the ultra-right GOP's stay home in protest.  That is the only scenario I can see which would whisk Hillary into the White House.

I'm banking on Edwards throwing his support behind Obama to get a shot at VP and Richardson being Hillary's choice for VP if she gets the nod at the convention.  I think Edwards has held back his support because he wants to be a viable running mate to either at this point.  Not well noted in the media is Richardson hasn't endorsed anyone either.

McCain has a liberal enough voting record, and there are enough Democrats who simply distrust the Clintons who would be willing to vote for McCain.  He's proven he's Republican in name only.  McCain has the potential to gain a more clear-cut victory in Ohio and Florida against Hillary- two lynch-pins of the last two general elections.

More than anything, I think there's a growing ground-swell of sentiment of: "Anyone other than a Clinton or Bush for the next four years".

Think about it, if Hillary were to win the general election, that would mean our country's highest job will have been monopolized by two families for about 10% of our nation's existence.

I'd sit the election out if it came down to a mental issue versus a dynasty.

[Conan71]

You never know Aox, you and I might find ourselves toasting an Obama victory at the Empire if McCain is the GOP candidate and Hillary goes down in flames.  I've got 9 months to research both of them a lot more.

[Breadburner]

Huck is going to be the next V.P......

[FOTD]

Another one liner bait BB?

[altruismsuffers]

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

Huck is gong to be the next V.P......

 

HA!

[Breadburner]

**Sniff**Sniff**

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71



Here's Hillary's handicap in the general if she gets nominated:

Approx half or more of the Democrat party has not been voting for her to this point and your poll results even bear that out.  Let's say another 25% of Democrats from Obama and Edwards wind up voting for her.  I'm willing to bet less than 15% of registered centrist or slightly liberal Republicans would vote for her.  Worst thing which could happen to McCain is if the ultra-right GOP's stay home in protest.  That is the only scenario I can see which would whisk Hillary into the White House.

A general election with Hillary vs. anybody will depend heavily on independents, who this cycle are breaking for Democrats in huge numbers.  The question, as it always is, will be: should we jettison the party in power or not?  In spite of all the talk about dynasties and grasping personalities and "Hillary-care" and Bill, etc etc, the electorate still wants the Republicans out of power in a big way, and Hillary, while perhaps distasteful to some, is a hell of a lot better than what we got that last seven years.  

quote:I'm banking on Edwards throwing his support behind Obama to get a shot at VP and Richardson being Hillary's choice for VP if she gets the nod at the convention.  I think Edwards has held back his support because he wants to be a viable running mate to either at this point.  Not well noted in the media is Richardson hasn't endorsed anyone either.

Those are good points, and I think you're right.  They're both angling for power spots.  They'll both wait till after Super Tuesday at the least to offer support, and probably later if it's as close as polls say it is.  

quote:McCain has a liberal enough voting record, and there are enough Democrats who simply distrust the Clintons who would be willing to vote for McCain.  He's proven he's Republican in name only.  McCain has the potential to gain a more clear-cut victory in Ohio and Florida against Hillary- two lynch-pins of the last two general elections.

More than anything, I think there's a growing ground-swell of sentiment of: "Anyone other than a Clinton or Bush for the next four years".

I think you're right . . . . slightly.  Yes, there's a minor push against dynasties right now, and it's showing up in Obama's numbers, which are getting better day by day. But it won't translate much into the general.  I still think it's not just Bush that needs repudiation, but the entire Republican power base (yah, I know that's strong, but it's true), and Dems and the independents are gonna do that this year.  The quote I've heard (from Republican pollsters no less) is that we're undergoing a "paradigm shift" away from conservative politics and towards the left, and woe be to anyone who stands in the way . . . . or denies it's happening.

[PonderInc]

Fun fact: John McCain IS conservative.  Question: Just how big of a caveman club do you have to swing these days to qualify as "conservative?"

One problem with the campaign is that everyone has an opinion or an "image" of someone, without any actual knowledge or information.  TV ads, Fox News commentaries, and op-eds only confuse matters more.

I'm a big fan of Project Vote Smart, where you can see actual voting records (with summaries that describe what the votes mean in plain English).  They also tell you how often a candidate voted in line with the platforms of various special interest groups. ("Interest Group Ratings")

Check it out: Project Vote Smart
and their summary info on McCain