Obama in the lead?

[sgrizzle]

So says the Obama camp:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html

[kylieosu]

let's hope so. *keeps fingers crossed*

[RecycleMichael]

I don't think so...

MSNBC
Hillary 582    Obama 485

CNN
Hillary 783    Obama 709

Fox News
Hillary 845    Obama 765

ABC News
Hillary 872    Obama 793

CBS News
Hillary 900    Obama 824

Hillary is still ahead.

[sgrizzle]

Hillary is theoretically ahead based on superdels alone.

The superdels picked Dean last go round.

[pmcalk]

At least for the CNN numbers you cite, that includes both pledged & superdelegates.  Obama is winning the pledged; superdelegates are always difficult to predict.

[cannon_fodder]

Democrats have 349 Super Delegates, 221 of which are currently notched in Hillary's column (including her husband) but none re committed and the candidates have no say in the matter.

Of the delegates that have been won, or earned by votes:

Obama:  696
Hillary: 689

So in total delegates earned, total votes, and both tallies for last night - Obama is ahead.

[FOTD]

In two weeks, Billary will trail Barrack. Yesterday, my prediction was Hillobeans w/b 100 delegates in front. Not a bad guestimate.

Reading this mornings spin in the Whirled you'd think McCaint was their man. Stoops. Came out of the shrubs for Bush not once but twice.

[FOTD]

And you cain't see this in any local media.

Op-Ed Columnist
Darkness and Light

By MAUREEN DOWD
Published: February 6, 2008
LOS ANGELES



Maureen Dowd

"Hillary Clinton denounced Dick Cheney as Darth Vader, but she did not absorb the ultimate lesson of the destructive vice president:

Don't become so paranoid that you let yourself be overwhelmed by a dark vision.

I think Hillary truly believes that she and Bill are the only ones tough enough to get to the White House. Jack Nicholson endorsed her as "the best man for the job," and she told David Letterman that "in my White House, we'll know who wears the pantsuits." But her pitch is the color of pitch: Because she has absorbed all the hate and body blows from nasty Republicans over the years, she is the best person to absorb more hate and body blows from nasty Republicans.

Darkness seeking darkness. It's an exhausting specter, and the reason that Tom Daschle, Ted Kennedy, Claire McCaskill and so many other Democrats are dashing for daylight and trying to break away from the pathological Clinton path.

"I think we should never be derisive about somebody who has the ability to inspire," Senator McCaskill told David Gregory on MSNBC on Tuesday. "You know, we've had some dark days in this democracy over the last seven years, and today the sun is out. It is shining brightly. I watch these kids, these old and young, these black and white, 20,000 of them, pour into our dome in St. Louis Saturday night, and they feel good about being an American right now. And I think that's something that we have to capture."

Tuesday's voting showed only that the voters, like moviegoers, don't want a pat ending. Even though Hillary reasserted her strength, corraling New York, California and Kennedy country Massachusetts, she and Obama will battle on in chiaroscuro. Her argument to the Democratic base has gone from a subtext of "You owe me," or more precisely, "Bill owes me and you owe him," to a subtext of "Obambi will fold at the first punch from the right."

Hillary's strategist Mark Penn argued last week that because the voters have "very limited information" about Obama, the Republican attack machine would tear him down and he would lose the support of independents. Then Penn tried to point the way to negative information on Obama, just to show that Obama wouldn't be able to survive Republicans pointing the way to negative information.

As she talked Sunday to George Stephanopoulos, a former director of the formidable Clinton war room, Hillary's case boiled down to the fact that she can be Trouble, as they say about hard-boiled dames in film noir, when Republicans make trouble.

"I have been through these Republican attacks over and over and over again, and I believe that I've demonstrated that much to the dismay of the Republicans, I not only can survive, but thrive," she said.

And on Tuesday night she told supporters, "Let me be clear: I won't let anyone Swift-boat this country's future."

Better the devil you know than the diffident debutante you don't. Better to go with the Clintons, with all their dysfunction and chaos — the same kind that fueled the Republican hate machine — than to risk the chance that Obama would be mauled like a chew toy in the general election. Better to blow off all the inspiration and the young voters, the independents and the Republicans that Obama is attracting than to take a chance on something as ephemeral as hope. Now that's Cheney-level paranoia.

Bill is propelled by Cheneyesque paranoia, as well. His visceral reaction to Obama — from the "fairy tale" line to the inappropriate Jesse Jackson comparison — is rooted less in his need to see his wife elected than in his need to see Obama lose, so that Bill's legacy is protected. If Obama wins, he'll be seen as the closest thing to J. F. K. since J. F. K. And J. F. K. is Bill's hero.

For much of the campaign, when matched against Hillary in debates, the Illinois senator seemed out of his weight class. But he has moved up to heavyweight, even while losing five pounds as he has raced around the country. The big question is: Can he go from laconic to iconic to bionic? Will he have the muscle to take on the opposition, from Billary to the Republican hate machine to the terrorists overseas?

"I try to explain to people, I may be skinny but I'm tough," he told a crowd of more than 15,000 in Hartford the other night, with the Kennedys looking on. "I'm from Chicago."

The relentless Hillary has been the reticent Obama's tutor in the Political School for Scandal. He is learning how to take a punch and give one back. When she presents her mythic narrative, the dragon she has slain is the Republican attack machine. Obama told me he doesn't think about mythic narratives, and Tuesday night in Chicago he was reaching up for "a hymn that will heal this nation and repair the world."

But, if he wants to be president, he will still have to slay the dragon. And his dragon is the Clinton attack machine, which emerged Tuesday night, not invincible but breathing fire. "

Obama is no chew toy.....he is light, she is dark. The irony of American politics.

[sgrizzle]

Obama's in the lead no matter how you count it now:
http://www.cnn.com/

[cannon_fodder]

Last night while watching the CNN coverage I noticed they had given the "uncommitted" super delegates to Clinton.  MSNBC, CBS and Fox News all had similar numbers but CNN had Hillary up by like 40.  So they didn't give her all of them... not real sure how they figured it.

No matter really, those commitments mean as much as most political promises I suppose.  

On to Wisconsin where surely we will hear ramped up anti-trade rhetoric.

[rwarn17588]

She'd better get it together fast. Howard Fineman said last night that both camps said it's "very unlikely" that Hillary will close the gap in pledged delegates at the end of the primary season.

About the only hope she has is making up the gap with super-delegates.

Obama's lead has been bigger than expected because Hillary has been getting absolutely smoked in recent primaries.

When you've got delegates awarded by percentages, losing by 25, 30, even 40 points is going to put you in a deep hole a lot faster.

[Double A]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

She'd better get it together fast. Howard Fineman said last night that both camps said it's "very unlikely" that Hillary will close the gap in pledged delegates at the end of the primary season.

About the only hope she has is making up the gap with super-delegates.

Obama's lead has been bigger than expected because Hillary has been getting absolutely smoked in recent primaries.

When you've got delegates awarded by percentages, losing by 25, 30, even 40 points is going to put you in a deep hole a lot faster.

Stick a fork in her. She is done either way. There is no honor or integrity in losing the most states and the popular vote, only to usurp the nomination by Super Delegate votes. Just like there was no honor or integrity in putting her name on the ballot in Michigan or Florida.