If Hillary wins Texas and Ohio...

[RecycleMichael]

I got my math from this story...

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/hendrikhertzberg/2008/02/hillarys-challe.html

I am amazed by the strength and odor of attacks on everything Hillary's campaign does. She gets slammed for things she doesn't do as well.

I don't know what will happen in Florida and Michigan in terms of delegates. Something will happen between now and the convention. The democrat party will seat somebody from those two states. Maybe it will take a re-vote, but something will happen.

If there is a re-vote, believ me that Hillary will do well in both states. It will be just adding on to her momentum of winning on Tuesday and then winning again in Pennsylvania in seven weeks.

[FOTD]

A river in Egypt.....

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I love politics too.  I have the entire set of Topps Presidential candidate trading cards.

I know that Hillary will win Ohio. I know that she will win Rhode Island. I hope that she will win Texas.

If you count the voters of Michigan and Florida (not the contested delgates, that is a different issue), Obama is ahead by 287,000 votes nationally. If Hillary wins or ties in Texas and wins by eight to ten points in Ohio and she will be ahead in popular vote.

More people will have voted for Hillary than Obama in America and she will have won most of the important states.

Will you Obama fanatics then stop demanding that she suspend her campaign?

I have never called for Clinton to suspend her campaign.  I think her participation keeps interest in the process.  Which is why I suspect that Huckabee stays in the race.  Secretly, I am sure that McCain appreciates his running, since without him, no one would be paying any attention.

Still, I think you have to admit that with all of Obama's wins, the idea that Clinton will be able to succeed is very slim.  Regardless of the delegates, the chance of her winning the popular vote is very slim.  According to the article you rely upon:

quote:If Florida's votes are counted but not Michigan's, then Clinton needs to carry Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by 59 per cent to 41 per cent, or 17 points, in order to match Obama's vote totals. And if results from both Florida and Michigan are excluded, she needs to win by 62 per cent to 38 per cent. Margins like these do not seem within the realm of possibility.

It's true that, if you count Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, she only needs to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylannia by 8 points, but even that is unlikely, given that Obama is ahead in Texas and neck-and-neck in Ohio.  He could lose both Texas and Ohio and still be ahead both in the popular vote and in the delegate count quite easily.

I do hope Clinton doesn't continue to run even after all hope of winning is gone.  I have a lot respect for her, and I think that would be embarassing to her.

[USRufnex]

RM--- "I am amazed by the strength and odor of attacks on everything Hillary's campaign does. She gets slammed for things she doesn't do as well."

Nice play of the VICTIM card.
If Hillary Clinton had WON the last 11 contests, I'd expect a certain amount of discussion of things Obama doesn't "do as well."

--------"Here are the latest RealClearPolitics numbers, including the totals from Wisconsin and Hawaii (margins and percentages supplied by me):

Not counting Florida and Michigan:

Obama: 10,234,964 (52.3%)
Clinton: 9,324,418 (47.7%)
Obama's margin: 910,550
-----------------------------------------------

This IS the margin.  Florida and Michigan violated the rules.  Their votes NEVER COUNTED.  Why change the rules now, weeks after the fact?  Those two primaries were not contested.

I am listening to Hillary in Akron right now on CNN..... what a two-faced little piggy she's become... she's very definitely playing the gender card right now, maybe it's time for some Obama voter suppression...

Support Obama, Stop Your Mamma
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIa2m09Nd6E

My best response to her tactics these days.... is from her hubby Bill Clinton (who pinky-swears he won't be intimately involved in the presidency if she wins.... cough, cough...)...

Clinton on Fear Vs Hope
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGW38Zy4bJo

[RecycleMichael]

I think she can play the victim card on these...Obama has been playing it for some time.

The nation's media have been very Obama in this race and she has been ahead or within a few points the whole time. Yes, Obama has momentum, but I started this thread asking what if momentum shifts back to her.

I wasn't just saying youse guys when I refer to the strength and odor comment (but it is all over the television, the radio and the blogosphere). I think she has been treated very unfairly. She has been called every negative name in the book. Pick any insult (wicked, *****, mean, fat...you name it) and add her name and google it. Hundreds of thousands of hits appear.

I am not in denial. I know that the baggage of all that is weighing her down and she probably can't win. I also know that she is criticized for her laugh, her tears, her hair styles, her every move. We would never criticize McCain hair (or lack thereof). A woman is just treated different in this country. If a man argues, he is a fighter, a woman does it, she is a *****. This country is just not ready for Hillary or any woman to be president. It doesn't matter if they are.

I had a real hard time deciding to to vote for after Edwards dropped out. I decided on Hillary because I knew what it would do to this country. Electing a woman president would change the dynamic of power in every office, every workplace, every church, everywhere in this country. Her winning doesn't just change Washington, it changes everything. That is real change.

Hillary is as qualified to be president as any of the top candidates. She has a lifetime of success, but many will make up their mind that she only did it with a man's help. Maybe the next woman running for president will have an easier road because of the lessons learned from this campaign. It may not happen again for a long time. No matter what you feel about her, this is the closest a woman has ever been to being elected. I do not apologize for defending her campaign. I want a woman to be president as soon as possible, not just for our country, but for every woman in our country. Especially my six-year-old daughter. I never want her to believe that there is something she can't become because of her gender.

[FOTD]

Genderizationist Party. Right?

[RecycleMichael]

Gee FOTD...you never get it, do you?

She is qualified to be president. Not every woman. Hillary is. The fact that she is a woman is a bonus.

My vote for a democrat in Oklahoma won't matter because we live a red state, but my support for Hillary matters to me. I know you must have a good reason why you support Obama, but in all your posts on this forum on this election, all you ever post are attacks on Hillary.

So FOTD, could you explain why you support Obama?

[mr.jaynes]

Anybody catch her on SNL last night?

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Gee FOTD...you never get it, do you?

She is qualified to be president. Not every woman. Hillary is. The fact that she is a woman is a bonus.

My vote for a democrat in Oklahoma won't matter because we live a red state, but my support for Hillary matters to me. I know you must have a good reason why you support Obama, but in all your posts on this forum on this election, all you ever post are attacks on Hillary.

So FOTD, could you explain why you support Obama?

She'd be terrible dealing with Muslim regimes. They have no respect for women. Bill would be totally in there. He's a has been. He dissapointed many of us. She would be very divesive on the homeland. Her emotions would get in the way of her judgement.

I'm for Obama for many good reasons.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid353515028?bctid=416343938

There is a clear disitinction between the two.

I'd sit out the election if Billary faced McCaint.
It's cut and dry. We need a new face for America. See change and sea change.

[FOTD]

She's old hat too.....old hack as well.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/29/718538.aspx
Sen. Hillary Clinton has declined to return $170,000 in campaign contributions from individuals at a company accused of widespread sexual harassment, and whose CEO is a disbarred lawyer with a criminal record, federal campaign records show. "This is by far, hands down, the worst case I've ever experienced," said Diane Smason, one of the EEOC lawyers handling the lawsuit. "Every woman there experienced sex harassment, they were part of a hostile work environment of sex harassment." Senator Clinton is keeping the money.

Intelligent design? Don't take the bait.

[sgrizzle]

quote:Originally posted by Double A

Notice it's gone from when to if she wins, that says it all.

If she wins?



I don't think she's the worst candidate, I just think she can only win if democratic party officials ignore their constituents.

A democratic president should be a shoo-in for 2008, but it seems they are desperate to find a way to screw it up.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:She also won Florida and Michigan

No other major democrat was even on the ballot in Michigan, of course she won!

This entire thing bothers me.  She is firmly on record saying she agrees they should not count because they broke party rules.  She wins, and now they should count.  For me, that pretty much is the entire MO of Clinton - what I said or stand for be damned if it helps me win.  If she never agreed she would have a case to assert it should count, as it stands she can either give up on them or be a hypocrite, no other choice.

And yes, she won e 3 of the 10 big states (2 of them being her "home" state in NY/NJ plus California.  MI isnt even an indication, and FL "should not be counted,"  quote is from Hillary).  Meanwhile Obama has won 2 of them.  It looks increasingly like they will split TX and Ohio, so for the big states Hillary will officially be up 4 to 3 in the big states.  Not exactly a landslide.

For the small states I count Obama 25, Hillary 8.  For the popular vote Obama is up by about 1,000,000 people.  In the state's where Hillary won the democrats can count on delegates if a well spoke clam ran for the presidency (NY, NJ, California, & Michigan) and polling indicates that Obama wins more cross over republicans and independents - so I don't see a "but I won these state's!" argument winning a convention.

What's more:

quote:she will probably be favored to win in Pennsylvania in May and has a ten point lead there now

Just like the 10 point lead she had going in to Wisconsin, where she lost by 14.  Or Iowa.  Or Texas...  if you look at the polls she had a 14 point lead, then 12, then 8 and now 4.  Same as what happened in the Texas of Ohio polls.  The more people know about her and the more the know about the choice, the more ground she loses.  She has yet to GAIN ground when campaigning in a state picked up in earnest.

To me, that's telling.  ut I am an unabashed Hillary hater so clearly I have issues looking at this with a clear lens.

[rwarn17588]

^+1

I should add that I'm not a Hillary hater, at all. I just think that Obama is a better candidate for the Democrats -- and has proven it on the campaign trail.

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

So, RM, are you ready to go double or nothing?  Here's what I predict, Obama will get Texas...

You are on.

Hillary wins the Texas popular vote.

Loser pays for dine-in Mazzio's pizza for both families at the downtown location.

[Conan71]

Jamie Dupree was saying on Boortz this morning that he was not seeing very much overt support for Obama, even in Austin of all places.

Hillary isn't ever going to concede before the convention, regardless of Texas and Ohio.

The Clinton legal machine will spring into action.