Hillary has momentum

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

NM Gov. Bill Richardson endorsing Obama ...

There goes the moe......

That is sad. Now he can't be Hillary's Vice President.

[RecycleMichael]

Did you see today's polling? Hillary is still ahead by 16 points in Pennsylvania and is 28 points ahead in West Virginia.

Will Obama win any of the remaining states?

[pmcalk]

Even assuming you look at the popular vote instead of the pledged delegates (even though everyone knows that candidates are chosen based on delegates, not popular vote), Clinton cannot win absent some miracle.  She's down by 700,000 votes.  Even if she wins Pennsylvania by 20%, which is extremely unlikely (she only won Ohio by 10%), she will still be down by 300,000.  She is not likely to win Oregon or North Carolina, which means she would have to win the remaining states by over 60%.  That isn't going to happen.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9147.html

[RecycleMichael]

Your math assumes that no votes are counted in Florida or Michigan. Your math also assumes that Obama wins two key states. Have you seen recent polling?

Obama has been losing points for a week against both Hillary and McCain and no one knows how far he could drop.

[pmcalk]

Even if he loses all remaining states, Clinton would have to win on average by 56% to 57%.  She's only done that in Ohio, her home state of Arkansas & New York, and the NY suburb of Rhode Island.  It's not going to happen.  Especially now that she's basically tapped out of money ($3 million left), while Obama has 30 million to spend.  Today's endorsement by Richards will be followed by a trend as more and more recognize the inevitable.

Polls fluctuate daily, and while Clinton went up some after her nose dive, that's just a blip.

[FOTD]

When they figure out the Clintonites were behind the state department passport breach, when they figure out Bill Richardson will be Obama's running mate, and when that picture of Rev Wright attending to Bill Cliton the day he admitted indiscretion in the White House I think the poll numbers will shift significantly.

Oh, and once everyone can see what a nut case McBush is, there will be no doubt the country has made a change of course.

Where is McCaints psychological profile? We should have demanded one on Dumbya in '99. Then we'd have known the potential damage a dry drunk could do to this nation. McCrazy spent too much time as a POW. Look into those psychological profiles. Damn scary.

[Hometown]

quote:Originally posted by pmcalk

Even if he loses all remaining states, Clinton would have to win on average by 56% to 57%.  She's only done that in Ohio, her home state of Arkansas & New York, and the NY suburb of Rhode Island.  It's not going to happen.  Especially now that she's basically tapped out of money ($3 million left), while Obama has 30 million to spend.  Today's endorsement by Richards will be followed by a trend as more and more recognize the inevitable.

Polls fluctuate daily, and while Clinton went up some after her nose dive, that's just a blip.

Thanks for the reminder.  I've got to drag my credit card out once again.  I encourage everyone to donate to the Clinton campaign.  Even small amounts help.  hillaryclinton.com

[FOTD]

Save your money. What I said after Wisconsin....It's ova for Hildog and the Clintonites.....

[pmcalk]

Like I said, the slight rise in the poll was just a blip.  Gallup, the only poll to have Clinton ahead, now has them in a dead heat.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105559/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Now-47-Obamas-45.aspx

Obama's ability to turn a negative into a positive within a few days shows that he is the stronger candidate.  That, coupled with the fact that the same poll shows that only 44% of Americans find Clinton honest & trustworthy, compared to Obama's 63%.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

The media needs something to hype.  The war in Iraq has calmed down and is status quo operations.  Not enough Jews are killing Palestinians or the other way around.  The economic problems have yet to effect most Americans.  Global warming is taking a few years off.  And no new disease has come out that is surely going to kill us all this year.

If they ran with the "slim to no chance of winning" story on Clinton they would be out of print material.

[edit] Forgot the link:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html
[/edit]

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

Thanks for the reminder.  I've got to drag my credit card out once again.  I encourage everyone to donate to the Clinton campaign.  Even small amounts help.  hillaryclinton.com

Funny, but my first donations to a campaign were to Obama's a few weeks ago....

Tell me how much you're donating to hillary, and I'll double it for Obama... []

http://my.barackobama.com/fiveyearslater

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

When they figure out the Clintonites were behind the state department passport breach, when they figure out Bill Richardson will be Obama's running mate, and when that picture of Rev Wright attending to Bill Cliton the day he admitted indiscretion in the White House I think the poll numbers will shift significantly.

Oh, and once everyone can see what a nut case McBush is, there will be no doubt the country has made a change of course.

Where is McCaints psychological profile? We should have demanded one on Dumbya in '99. Then we'd have known the potential damage a dry drunk could do to this nation. McCrazy spent too much time as a POW. Look into those psychological profiles. Damn scary.

Please try and discuss these politicians with a little respect, FOTD. Your attacks have no place on this forum. Please.

Take it to the alley.

[FOTD]

McCain is definitely wobbly.....the news media is reluctant to discuss what kind of candidate psychological damage could spill over and hurt our nation. They are just as reluctant to tell you RM that no matter what Hillary wants mathematically they is toast. She and Bill have serious issues as well seeping with cocksureness, self centerness, and vaingloriness while hurting those they claim they wish to represent.

Isn't that psychological questioning essentially what is going on with the attacks on Obama for attending Jerimiah Wrights' sermons?

[Hometown]

I honestly believe all Democrats involved in these discussions are very sincere and believe their candidate offers the best shot at the White House.  

Obama's recent speech on race appealed to some elites and was lost on the masses.  I don't think he gave us the simple answer we needed to kill the issue.  

I also wonder how his connection to anti-Semitic elements is going to play out with Jewish folks, who are very important to the party.  I've also heard talking heads hint that we are going to hear stories about connections to Chicago mob through Chicago politics.  We Democrats have some bumpy roads ahead of us.

I don't think Obama planned on getting this far.  I don't think he is a fighter.  I don't think he is prepared.

There are of course his young supporters.  I'm reminded of John Dean’s young supporters and how they were a complete disappointment in the general election.

There aren't many surprises left with Ms. Clinton.  She has lived her life in public for many years now.

She clearly has the fire in the belly and has lived her life for this moment for many years now.  She is the best prepared to slug it out with the right wing hate machine this November.

She is going to get crummy press for the next few weeks because of the often cited media bias for Obama.  Then she will win big time in Pennsylvania and the media will rush in to join the parade.

I still expect to see her win and offer Obama the vice-presidency because she will have to in order to save the party.

In all honesty I don't get Obama.  I don't see special.  I see lackluster and unprepared and arrogant.

Once again, I’ll vote for our party’s candidate, but I have to say, I have not heard those words from one Obama supporter.  

[pmcalk]

Hometown, I'll vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination, but she won't. Obama this last week showed what it takes to be a true leader.  You don't duck and hide--you confront.  His speech was approved by 70% of the population--both democrats and republicans.  Of course, Fox news & the extremists will contine to make a big deal about it.  But the people who listen to them won't vote for any democrat.

I find it amazing that people keep saying Hillary has been "fully vetted."  Just this week, we find out that her statement about "being under sniper fire" in Bosnia was fabricated.  Her statements about not supporting NAFTA were less than truthful.  We still haven't seen the tax returns.  I am quite sure that there is more to come out about her.  Why do you think that Rush Limbaugh urged 100,000 republicans to vote for her in Texas (which was about the number of votes by which she won).  Only 44% of Americans find her to be honest.  And that's before the right wing starts reminded people about all of the scandals of the Clinton years.