Red meat: 1804 = $1.8 Billion

[Conan71]

I tend to agree with Waterboy's assessment of the enforceability.  Hispanics are not and are not going to be randomly profiled and asked to prove citizenship.  If anything, it's made Hispanics more wary of law enforcement and has probably made them much more cognizant and adherant to our laws.

School enrollment numbers are not down as significantly as anyone expected.  Hispanics are still working away in industrial laundries, machine shops, metal plating plants, trimming trees, mowing yards, and yes covering Tyvek with brick veneer on commercial and residential construction projects.

Has there been a loss of workers and residents?  Yes.  Has it been and will it be the major cataclysm predicted by opponents, no.

Many are taking the risk and staying behind.

[TURobY]

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar

I guess I'm so sensitive on this subject because on Monday someone sent me a radio broadcast from NPR (from Jan or Feb I think), that talked about Oklahoma's tough new immigration reform bill.  The broadcast started by painting a picture of Tulsa as a ghost town.  The reporter said that half finished buildings were sitting wrapped in Tyvek with piles of bricks around them.  Houses were left abandon with no one to live in them or build them.  Businesses had packed up and moved to other states.  They painted Tulsa as a deserted, dried up, hopeless town because of our immigration bill.  I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

They interviewed a nurse or doctor that said babies were left to die because their parents were afraid to go to the hospital for fear that they would be deported.

The more I listened, the madder I got!  None of it was real.  The entire story was ridiculous!  But it is one version of the story that the rest of the world is hearing.

Every story I hear regarding 1804 involves Tulsa. I have yet to hear one about OKC though. Why is that?

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

If you think illegals are getting paid below minimum wage you need to wake up....They get as much as a legal worker with the same skill level....

You wake up.

Where did you get that I thought illegals were paid less than legal workers? I wouldn't know. I spoke about the increased demand for workers, both skilled and unskilled that will naturally occur if the labor pool decreases which would put pressure on wages to increase, which is always opposed by business.

[cannon_fodder]

It is the economic IMPACT numbers, not the resulting loss in wages.  It has very little to do with the actual illegal immigrants, rather their economic output.  And keep in mind an individual economic output has a residual effect.

If a home builder can not finish framing a house then dry wallers plumbers, roofers, Realors and mortgage brokers lose business too (read: bank customers).  If an immigrant who earns $10 an hour moves out of Tulsa we sell less gas, rent less apartments, barbers cut less hair, and every other general service sector declines.  The overall decline was $1.8 Billion.  BUT, going forward there will be an inflow of immigration to offset the losses.

The study estimates a total loss of $1.3 Billion per annum in the long run as new residence pick up the slack.  Unfortunately economics dictates that a contractor can not replace 4 Mexicans at $7 an hour with 4 "Americans" at $15.  More importantly, the types of unskilled jobs that were vacated will not draw the required immigration to fill them (people generally don't move out of state for $15 an hour) and at full employment there are not enough Oklahoma's to fill the positions.

The cold hard fact is cheap labor makes money for our economy and saves US, the consumers, money.

This study did NOT attempt to justify illegal immigration.  It was a study looking at the loss of cheap labor and the cost of that on the greater Oklahoma economy.  Comparing the $1.3 billion loss to the $250,000,000 public subsidy the law costs Oklahoma over $1 BILLION a year.  I've read over the study and it seems about as sound as one of these things gets (they adopted some numbers and many others were estimates, but all seemed reasonable to me, but clearly there is room on either side).

ANYWAY, the Bankers were clear that they are not commenting on the law.  It is not their position to make a judgment on immigration.  They look at numbers, and the numbers on HB 1804 say it is an economic loser for Oklahoma, and Oklahoma Bankers.

So applaud 1804 if you would like on the merits of the action itself, but if you haven't even looked at nor understand the study refrain from bashing the findings.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by TURobY

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar

I guess I'm so sensitive on this subject because on Monday someone sent me a radio broadcast from NPR (from Jan or Feb I think), that talked about Oklahoma's tough new immigration reform bill.  The broadcast started by painting a picture of Tulsa as a ghost town.  The reporter said that half finished buildings were sitting wrapped in Tyvek with piles of bricks around them.  Houses were left abandon with no one to live in them or build them.  Businesses had packed up and moved to other states.  They painted Tulsa as a deserted, dried up, hopeless town because of our immigration bill.  I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

They interviewed a nurse or doctor that said babies were left to die because their parents were afraid to go to the hospital for fear that they would be deported.

The more I listened, the madder I got!  None of it was real.  The entire story was ridiculous!  But it is one version of the story that the rest of the world is hearing.

Every story I hear regarding 1804 involves Tulsa. I have yet to hear one about OKC though. Why is that?

I dunno.  Liberals love to hate on Tulsa because it's so conservative?

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by guido911

Waterboy, way to completely avoid Gaspar's well-reasoned and thoughtful post.

And by the way, tell us more about this underground system of labor; because the way I see it, unless this illegal labor is occurring literally underground or otherwise out of the sight of the people, there is no place to hide. Plus, who wants to risk felony charges for merely assisting in this underground system.

Thanks. Just doing my job.

Do you know any CPA's that have covered for their employers "indiscretions" in hiring? I knew one. He assured me he wasn't the only one. Here's a surprise for you Guido. Not all Hispanics...look hispanic! Not all guys named Guido are...Italian either.[] Clever business men hide there less palatable operations just like mobsters hide money and cake-eaters use swiss accounts.

Out of the sight of the public? How much does the public really see? Very little. Pickle in West Tulsa? Who saw that? We're talking people who flaunt laws with felony punishments all the time. Enough money and pressure from your boss and its a calculated risk. One single employee at a west Tulsa refinery pumped wax into the river just to keep his job.

[Breadburner]

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

If you think illegals are getting paid below minimum wage you need to wake up....They get as much as a legal worker with the same skill level....

You wake up.

Where did you get that I thought illegals were paid less than legal workers? I wouldn't know. I spoke about the increased demand for workers, both skilled and unskilled that will naturally occur if the labor pool decreases which would put pressure on wages to increase, which is always opposed by business.

I wasn't talking to you dingleberry.....

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar

Sorry!  I couldn't let this go!

I can't understand why some politicians rage for a higher minimum wage with one side of their mouth, but then defend paying an illegal alien $3.50 an hr to work a 80 hour week?

If we grew poppies and produced Oklahoma Heroine, I'm sure we could make billions, fix the roads, fund schools, and build  ball parks, but it's illegal!  

Just like heroine, we have to break our addiction to cheap labor, and start paying workers what their worth.  Why is this so hard for some people to swallow?  Yes!  it's going to cost more, and the withdraw is going to be difficult.  But we are being viewed as an example for the whole country.

I guess I'm so sensitive on this subject because on Monday someone sent me a radio broadcast from NPR (from Jan or Feb I think), that talked about Oklahoma's tough new immigration reform bill.  The broadcast started by painting a picture of Tulsa as a ghost town.  The reporter said that half finished buildings were sitting wrapped in Tyvek with piles of bricks around them.  Houses were left abandon with no one to live in them or build them.  Businesses had packed up and moved to other states.  They painted Tulsa as a deserted, dried up, hopeless town because of our immigration bill.  I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

They interviewed a nurse or doctor that said babies were left to die because their parents were afraid to go to the hospital for fear that they would be deported.

The more I listened, the madder I got!  None of it was real.  The entire story was ridiculous!  But it is one version of the story that the rest of the world is hearing.  

Do you think the law is enforceable? I don't. So its likely the underground system that has operated to business' advantage will become even more sophisticated because I assure you, the minimum wage and wages in general for the type of work they did, will not be raised to match the demand. Not in this state anyway. Even if it was we lack the skilled and willing workers.  

The alcohol prohibition scenario mentioned above is a good example of what happens when you try to artificially and bluntly clamp off demand. Might as well legislate an end to gravity. Of course we needed to address the problem and manage it. This law addressed it alright but will likely direct the demand farther underground.

Any law is enforceable, only when there is the will to enforce.  I know for a fact that Tulsa builders are requiring their workers to carry documentation of citizenship or work permit.  I also know that they are distancing themselves from hiring contractors that may put them under liability. . . and yes it's more expensive.

But to imply that work has stopped, or productivity is down is simply not true!  It just costs more.  I've watched prices on commercial projects jump slightly, and residential a little less.  But for NPR to imply that we have just shriveled up and died because we intend to enforce the law is a HUGE LIE!  

The homebuilders that our residential department is designing houses for have found it more expensive to hire roofers, framers, and laborers, but nothing has stopped!  There are a lot more young people who would otherwise be working at Wendy's on the job site now, and they are making more than they would at Wendy's (no offense to Wendy's, I love your burgers!)

You wanted more jobs and higher wages.  It seems like we are taking steps to solve that problem by enforcing laws that make it illegal to promote illegal cheap labor.  

When slavery was abolished, I'm sure that some plantation owners resisted, and enforcement was a problem.  I'm sure that people argued that production would go down and industry would shrivel up. I'm sure they said "no one will want to work in the fields."   I'm sure that for a while it became more expensive to buy a cotton shirt or a bag of potatoes.  But it was the right thing to do!

In my mind, a business person hiring an illegal work force at half the wages with no benefits is despicable.  It destroys everything that America stands for.  It promotes the recognition of a class of people that YOU deem to have fewer rights than you, and therefore are worth less. When in reality, if they were to go through the proper channels and acquire the proper paperwork, you would be required to treat them with the same respect, rights, wages, and benefits as any other worker.

How can so many americans be fooled by politicians fighting for subjugation under the guise of equality?

[FOTD]

The Terrill for Govenor xenophiles are having another wet dream all over this thread.....

[guido911]

quote: Not all guys named Guido are...Italian either.[]

Agreed.

[RecycleMichael]

Many Hispanics have left town.

I hired a Mariachi band and got two gringos named Murray and Archie.

[Conan71]

There's also the compounding effect of higher fuel prices and raw material costs, not just labor.  A LOT of construction equipment runs on diesel fuel.  Granted, it's non-road use which is cheaper than the $3.79 you see on the roadside, but it's still up higher than it was a year back.

Our vendors which work primarily with steel or cast iron have gone up about 10% on finished product cost in the last year, ones who work with copper, more like 20%.  Add to that increased freight costs of about 15 to 25%.

I've also gotten word that steel prices are about to take another spike in the next month or two.  High fuel equals higher costs to fire furnaces, coupled with supposed raw material shortages.

Now, here's the part where the government is still playing "blind man".  A sting program to crack down on fake ID mills (not talking about the ones who make ID's for high schoolers to buy beer) would nip a lot of the illegal immigrant problem in the bud.  It's pretty difficult for employers as it is now to verify documentation with the government and counterfeit cards and documents look spot-on with today's computer programs and output equipment.

Some people have this image of job foremen and HR staff turning a blind eye and not checking I.D.'s.  That notion is largely incorrect, though I will agree there are likely some daily cash jobs that no one will check an ID, they just need a donkey for the day.

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Many Hispanics have left town.

I hired a Mariachi band and got two gringos named Murray and Archie.

I love those guys!  They do a great Hava-Nagela!

[waterboy]

Gaspar, you would have us believe that prohibition was a problem of poor enforcement? Elliot Ness and the "revenuers" were just pretending? That marijuana outlaw usage is a problem of poor enforcement? About the only way either one would have worked is to deputize half the population and arrest the other half! Then use illegals to build new prisons for them.

I respect the building trades for doing something about the problem. That sounds like the management of a problem, not the hammer/anvil solution others desire. BTW, my father's paint contracting business was affected by illegals over 20years ago. That and a real estate collapse similar to this one forced him into semi-retirement, so I know the problem needs addressed. I hope manufacturing and other business communities follow suit. But its not just jobs. Its the ripple effect on the whole system. We have always tolerated leakage in the immigration system as a lubricant for the gears of the economy. The machine will suffer some shudders.

Another BTW- I wouldn't be too surprised by the reporting on NPR. They are no more or less prone to running poorly researched, misleading and outright untrue stories as O'Reilly, Limbaugh, Fox and co. They just do it with more haugtiness, less emotion, and better diction! They rely on the same process of journalism as the others. However they don't assault me with idiocy in general like the aforementioned.

I am still skeptical of the law being any more enforceable or successful than prohibition or the war on drugs. If it works as a PR tool, a sort of "bully stick" well then maybe it will have some success. After the way hispanics have been portrayed by many on this forum I will have less respect for them should they stay and share air with us.

[waterboy]

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

quote:Originally posted by Breadburner

If you think illegals are getting paid below minimum wage you need to wake up....They get as much as a legal worker with the same skill level....

You wake up.

Where did you get that I thought illegals were paid less than legal workers? I wouldn't know. I spoke about the increased demand for workers, both skilled and unskilled that will naturally occur if the labor pool decreases which would put pressure on wages to increase, which is always opposed by business.

I wasn't talking to you dingleberry.....

Who were you talking to dickbump....?