Obama's momentum just keeps building....

[pmcalk]

Pennsylvania is 3 weeks away, a state that Hillary must win by huge numbers.  Yet, within a week, Rasmussen reports that Hillary's lead in that state has been cut in half, from 10% to 5% (just slightly higher than the margin of error).  These past few days, Obama has gotten key endorsements from superdelegates who had previously indicated they would remain neutral, including Casey of Pennsylvania.  In North Carolina, as many as 7 delgates are expected to endorse Obama soon.  Gallup has tracked Obama above 50%, something that Hillary has not been able to achieve since early February.  Even her own advisors say they'll encourage her to drop out if she doesn't win Indiana.  Clearly, this race will be over well before Denver. I just hope that Hillary's supporters will remain committed to her principals and support Obama.

[RecycleMichael]

Obama is outspending Hillary three to one and he is still behind? Sounds like trouble to me.

I also liked the part of the Rasmussen poll that asked if each candidate should drop out of the race. 21% said Hillary should and 18% said Obama should...gotta love the Pennsyvanians...

Did you see the Kentucky polling? Hillary 58% Obama 29%

That is some margin...

[pmcalk]

Out spent her three to one--what are you talking about?  He just started campaigning there last week.  A week of campaigning and he cuts the lead in half.  Obviously, he is going to have more money to spend in the state, given Hillary's campaign's dire financial situation.  

Of course Kentucky's going to look good for Hillary right now, since Obama hasn't campaigned there.  But I assume if you saw that, you also saw that Obama is ahead in North Carolina, which has almost as many delegates as Pennsylvania, by 18%.  You may have caught Intrade, which has Hillary down to 15.  And, even though I think it's kind of tacky, Slate has now begun the "Deathwatch" for Hillary.  Right now, she is at 12%.  http://www.slate.com/id/2187558/

[Hometown]

My feelings on Obama keep evolving.  I must say that I have liked a lot of politicians but I don't like Obama.  

But I have come to the realization that people I do respect, like him.  And I'm reconciling myself to the possibility he might be our nominee.  After all he has a slim lead over Clinton.  

But I am still hopeful Clinton will pull out a thin lead counting superdelegates and gain the nomination.  The more time passes the more we learn about Obama.  That might benefit Clinton.

But I have to say, if Clinton is forced out of this race before she is ready to concede I guarantee there isn't going to be any happy union within the party and you can count on a large number of her followers sitting out the election.  You'll never gain enough enough independents to make up the difference.

Guess what Clinton and her supporters count -- much more than Obama supporters wish to acknowledge.

[rwarn17588]

<Hometown wrote:

But I have to say, if Clinton is forced out of this race before she is ready to concede I guarantee there isn't going to be any happy union within the party and you can count on a large number of her followers sitting out the election.

<end clip>

Ummm, who would actually have the *ability* to force her out? I mean, really?

Unless she gets mathematically eliminated. That's not being forced out; that's simply losing.

Presidential candidates make the vow to "go all the way to the convention" all the time. But, eventually, the daunting math numbers catch up to them, and they make a concession speech.

Hillary's not to that point yet, but she will be within a few weeks.

[Hometown]

May I call you Miss Cleo?

Guess what?  It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

A lot can happen in a few weeks.

You say you could vote for any of the candidates so you don't have a lot invested in my party.  Personally, I don't have anywhere else to go.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

My feelings on Obama keep evolving.  I must say that I have liked a lot of politicians but I don't like Obama.  

But I have come to the realization that people I do respect, like him.  And I'm reconciling myself to the possibility he might be our nominee.  After all he has a slim lead over Clinton.  

But I am still hopeful Clinton will pull out a thin lead counting superdelegates and gain the nomination.  The more time passes the more we learn about Obama.  That might benefit Clinton.

But I have to say, if Clinton is forced out of this race before she is ready to concede I guarantee there isn't going to be any happy union within the party and you can count on a large number of her followers sitting out the election.  You'll never gain enough enough independents to make up the difference.

Guess what Clinton and her supporters count -- much more than Obama supporters wish to acknowledge.

Uh, the more time moves along the more I learn about Hillary.

The party will be a very happy one. A good time will be had by all....then and in January too.
Doesn't much matter what happens in Oklahomaphobia....

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

<Hometown wrote:

But I have to say, if Clinton is forced out of this race before she is ready to concede I guarantee there isn't going to be any happy union within the party and you can count on a large number of her followers sitting out the election.

<end clip>

Ummm, who would actually have the *ability* to force her out? I mean, really?

Unless she gets mathematically eliminated. That's not being forced out; that's simply losing.

Presidential candidates make the vow to "go all the way to the convention" all the time. But, eventually, the daunting math numbers catch up to them, and they make a concession speech.

Hillary's not to that point yet, but she will be within a few weeks.

May 2nd!
It's gonna happen May 2nd....watch!

[cannon_fodder]

1)  "Slim Margin" means 6% lead in actual delegates and 800,000 popular votes.  In the democratic system, that is nearly incontrovertible especially looking at the projects forward, she would need 60+% of all remaining votes to close the gap.  A margin she has achieve only once time (Arkansas, a small state that she argues doesnt really matter)

2) "No happy reunion in the party."  If Hillary gets forced out there will be no happy union, but if a hugely white group of super delegates decides the will of the voters to elect a black nominee should be over turned... then there will be a happy union?  

Yeah, that sounds like it will go over well.

3) Kentucky looks good a month out, kind of like Obama was down by 25% in Pennsylvania and 20% in Wisconsin or he was down 26% nationally?  The bad news is Obama finishes strong.  He consistently closes the largest gaps by margins usually exceeding 50% (Ohio he only closed it by 40%).  In the democratic system winning by <10% really gives you little edge, you need to blow people away.

Hillary looks to have little chance of doing that in Penn, her last stronghold.  Those will be offset by his 12%+ lead in NC which statistics say will probably remain and a slew of small states that will probably break for Obama.

4) $$$.  I do not have the spending stats, but the sad fact is it doesnt matter.  The vote tally matters, if his $ gains votes then he wins.
- - -

Seriously, it doesn't look good.

[Hometown]

Cannon, Anyone ever tell you are better at saying what you are against than what you are for?

There is a difference between letting the process work itself out and stopping the process.

It's going to matter a great deal what is said and done after we select a nominee, what is offered the loser, what is said to the loser's supports.

My point is that Clinton's supporters have been taken for granted and that might be a very serious mistake.

Now, Cannon, you have turned the super delegates and the front runner into a racial situation.  Let's face it, there are more White people than minority people in just about every category here in the United States.  To see racism in every such situation would render real racism a hollow accusation.

In fact I've think we've already reached that point in this campaign.  If there is any real racism (probably bound to be some), no one is going to believe it.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

Cannon, Anyone ever tell you are better at saying what you are against than what you are for?

There is a difference between letting the process work itself out and stopping the process.

It's going to matter a great deal what is said and done after we select a nominee, what is offered the loser, what is said to the loser's supports.

My point is that Clinton's supporters have been taken for granted and that might be a very serious mistake.

Now, Cannon, you have turned the super delegates and the front runner into a racial situation.  Let's face it, there are more White people than minority people in just about every category here in the United States.  To see racism in every such situation would render real racism a hollow accusation.

In fact I've think we've already reached that point in this campaign.  If there is any real racism (probably bound to be some), no one is going to believe it.

Black voters are going to be very sensitive to the race issue.  As of now, unless the polls are lying, Obama is getting the majority of black voter support in the Democrat Party.  He's also got a slim lead on popular vote.

If super-delegates or the representative delegates decide the caucus and primary results don't really count after all and Hillary walks out of the '08 DNC as the candidate and Obama as the running mate, there's going to be a revolt by black voters.  They are going to feel their candidate got screwed and as voters, they got hood-winked.

[Hometown]

There is implicit unfairness in demanding a different kind of treatment for Obama supporters versus Clinton supporters.  That is condescending towards Obama supporters.

I'm a Clinton supporter and if I am prepared to accept the outcome of the process I want Obama supporters to be good Democrats and show the same kind of spirit.  The process was set in place long before anyone knew who was going to be running.

Obama supporters you need to face what Clinton supporters already have -- your candidate really might lose.

[cannon_fodder]

Pardon me if I don't really follow what you are saying HT.  Do you disagree with anything I stated?  And I wasn't advocating for anything, I merely pointed out figures, stats and perspectives .

I'm not encouraging the DNC to step in and stop the process and both sides are calling for the other to step down.  Likewise, both sides show great angst towards the other which polls indicate will spill over to the general election.  Whoever the Loser is will be offered nothing, Clinton will never take a VP nod and her condescending offer to Obama was flatly rejected.

I agree that Clinton took her supporters for granted and it has turned out to be a serious mistake.

And how exactly did I turn this into a racial situation?  I merely pointed out the obvious situation - which involves race.  We could all cover our eyes and hum to pretend sex, race, religion, height, how pretty a face is, or how well someone speaks is not a factor and that we base it on experience, their political stance, and how honest they are.  But reality work differently.

It would be foolish to pretend Obama's race doesn't play at least a minimal roll or, at very least, the appearance of racial impropriety to the world and to the many black democrats when Obama wins and overwhelmingly white super delegates "steal" the election from him (not saying that is what will happen, just a scenario and a perspective).

Surely taking away the popular vote would be at least as damaging to the party as trying to force the person currently losing to drop out.   And I am not implying that super delegates would vote for Clinton to deny a black man the nomination or that race would (or should) play in their decision at all.  I'm merely suggestion  a perception which will certainly be expressed by a large minority should the event transpire.

I hope I clarified my statements.

[Conan71]

As long as the media is a willing accomplice to demagogues like Al $harpton and Je$$e Jack$on, race will remain a problem.  

Hillary would have done well to stay as far away from the Rev. Wright issue as she could.  

Black people can talk about white racism all they want with total impunity.  Make the accusation of black racism and even white people get defensive.

[cannon_fodder]

Well this isn't going to slow things down any:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf

Obama is ahead in the latest Pennsylvania poll.