Murder Rate Down by 50% Since HB1804

[Wrinkle]

Anyone else notice?

Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.

And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.

Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.

[Conan71]

Any stats on where and who the homicides were last year to this year?

It's an interesting coincidence at the least.  If half of the homicides were committed by illegal aliens last year, then certainly there's a positive result.  However, if 85% of all homicides were committed by U.S. citizens, then it really doesn't have much to do with 1804.

[YoungTulsan]

I would wait until that data gets a little more solid before you start jumping to conclusions, because you are about to be called a racist by a bunch of people on here.  I'm all for the data speaking for itself, but wait long enough for there to be a solid sample of data to draw those conclusions.  Murder rates usually pick up when the weather gets warmer too.

One more thing, I just saw a flood of police cars shooting down I-44, and I hear ambulances.  Sounds like something just happened nearby!

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Anyone else notice?

Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.

And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.

Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.

Correlation is not causation, I'm afraid.

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Anyone else notice?

Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.

And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.

Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.

You get to decide why the only reason the murder rate is going down? Do you know how many of the murders were committed by Hispanics or on Hispanics in past years or this year?

I am guessing no.

Maybe the murder rate in Tulsa is going down because of other factors. Maybe it has to do with the weather, or George Bush, or the Tulsa guy on American Idol.

If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.

[Gaspar]

I wonder if it has anything to do with the marked decrease in the pirate population.  Apparently that's what causes global warming.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar

I wonder if it has anything to do with the marked decrease in the pirate population.  Apparently that's what causes global warming.

no, but it might have something to do with the huge increase in the number of smartasses.

[TheArtist]

Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime. In the mid and norther latitudes, the hotter it gets, the more crime. "apparently robbers and such dont like getting out in the cold any more than the rest of us"

[Wrinkle]

quote:Originally posted by TheArtist

Actually I do think there are some correlations with temperature and crime. In the mid and norther latitudes, the hotter it gets, the more crime. "apparently robbers and such dont like getting out in the cold any more than the rest of us"

I've also heard the same argument about cold forcing people to be inside, close to each other, creating more crime.

Take it however you wish. But, anyone have any other big changes which could explain this large result? I do know it wasn't more cops on the streets.

Weather doesn't do it either. It hasn't been much different than last year. And, pirating just isn't what it used to be. With GPS, gun rights along with the cost of eye patches and hook hands, the economic return has greatly deminished.

[cannon_fodder]

Since 1804 foreclosures are also way up in Tulsa.

More business on the North Side and the East have closed.

Home starts have dropped dramatically.

There is at least as much correlation between those as with the murder rate.  But it is still an interesting point.  I do not know if there is any causal effect on any of those - what % of murders involved illegals?  

I suspect some did, but generally see petty crimes and spousal abuse with more Hispanic names than murder, robbery, etc.  The foreclosures could be either rental properties or houses that Hispanics walked out on.  The business going under are often ones owned by or catering too Hispanics.  And of course home starts could either be due to a lack of labor, a glut of houses recently, or a general downturn.

Anyway, someone find Tulsa murders by race. I looked and found no stats that included race (correlation != causation and it's not PC, I suppose).

[Wrinkle]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

Anyone else notice?

Seven so far this year in 13 weeks. We averaged more than one per week last year.

And, personal observation recalls nightly shootings reported on morning news. Also seems to be about half as often lately.

Of course, no thanks to our Mayor, who hasn't done anything to help yet.

You get to decide why the only reason the murder rate is going down? Do you know how many of the murders were committed by Hispanics or on Hispanics in past years or this year?

I am guessing no.

Maybe the murder rate in Tulsa is going down because of other factors. Maybe it has to do with the weather, or George Bush, or the Tulsa guy on American Idol.

If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.

quote: If the crime stats were going up, I am sure you would blame no one but the Mayor. But if they go down, she would get no credit from you.

Are you suggesting doing nothing about crime wouldn't be a reason for crime rates to rise?

In this case, doing nothing cannot be reason for the rate going down.

[we vs us]

There're all kinds of possible explanations, especially for a relatively small drop in real numbers.  We're talking a difference of six murders, looks like.  

Did TPS take any particularly violent perps off the street between now and then?  Any gang or drug rings busted up?  Did they perhaps change internal procedures . . . like patrol frequency or route? Better info to work with?  Better partnerships with the residents in bad neighborhoods?

The job market is improving in Tulsa, and that could be a strong reason why conflict is down.

Is there a possible boomerang effect from the ice storm?  Even though that happened before Xmas, the damage -- especially on the north side of the city -- was still immense into the new year.  Conventional wisdom says a disaster like that would make for MORE violence, not less . . . but then, that's still an assumption, not any sort of scientific conclusion.

Also . . . it's early yet.  There're still 39 more weeks for murders to catch up to last year's number.

And when did HB1804 actually go into effect?  Is it possible to even see real fallout from it yet?

[Wrinkle]

There are at least 6 people out there for whom these numbers are significant.

Shall we also discount all those corporate quarterly reports, housing and real estate quarterly reports and school grades?

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by we vs us
Also . . . it's early yet.  There're still 39 more weeks for murders to catch up to last year's number.

My sister used to live in Miami, Florida. They were the murder capital of America for many years, then were surpassed by Detroit.

She said that Miami would come back. It was a rebuilding (and reloading) year and they had some good draft picks.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by Wrinkle

There are at least 6 people out there for whom these numbers are significant.

Shall we also discount all those corporate quarterly reports, housing and real estate quarterly reports and school grades?

I agree.  6 people are still alive today because of some reason or combination of reasons.