One week to Pennsylvania Primary

[RecycleMichael]

Here is polling from this weekend...

Pollster       Dates      Clinton  Obama  
 
Rasmussen     4/14/08       50      41  
SurveyUSA     4/12-14/08    54      40  
ARG           4/11-13/08    57      37    
Quinnipiac    4/9-13/08     50      44  

What are the predictions from the TulsaNow pundits?

[cannon_fodder]

Clinton by +10%. 81 delegates to Obamas 77.

McCain gets 75% of the vote but 100% of the delegates.

[cannon_fodder]

[edit]The dreaded double post[/edit]

[Gaspar]

RCP POLL AVERAGES
Democratic Presidential Nomination
RCP Average
Obama48.4%
Clinton41.0%
Obama +7.4%

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Average
McCain (R)44.8%
Obama (D)45.0%
Und6.3%
Obama +0.2%

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton
RCP Average
McCain (R)46.2%
Clinton (D)44.8%
Und5.5%
McCain +1.4%


Mathematically, can Hillary turn it around?  Does the party want her to?

[Conan71]

There is no mathematical disadvantage to Hillary Clinton at this point.  There's still a realistic chance that the Democrats may have a brokered convention this year.  

She is tenacious enough and feels entitled enough to the nomination, I don't see her stepping aside before the convention.  I just don't see it happening.  She's going to do what's best for Hillary, not what's best for her party.  Right now, she's McCain's best ally, it's keeping the focus off him.

[FOTD]

B.O. will not lose this race and Billary will eventually throw the towel in long before Denver.

However, one must wonder what the Clittons game is. I believe they are up to no good knowing that 8 years of a democrat in the White House would be the end of their dynasty. Instead, their plan seems to be try to destroy any chance of an 8 year term and re-enter the race in 4 years as a repolished unifier. The only sacrafice is America has got to go through 4 more years of Bushenomics and war.

Wait and we will see....

[RecycleMichael]

If Obama loses by more than ten points, it will be a real sign that he has lost his luster.

That means he can't win.

How soon after a humiliating loss in Pennsylvania should he drop out?

[pmcalk]

Today's polling from Zogby has the race dead even (C-45%, O-44%).  Interesting take on Clinton's attacks:

quote:This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton's pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1481

Whether Clinton can win or not may depend on whether she pays "street money".  Ultimately, I think that Hillary will probably be able to squeeze out a win, but by 5% or less.

Should we continue our ongoing wager, RM?

[rwarn17588]

Clinton by six, which means nearly nothing in terms of her gaining delegates.

She needs delegates bad, and whatever gains she has in PA will be erased by Obama in North Carolina.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

If Obama loses by more than ten points, it will be a real sign that he has lost his luster.

That means he can't win.

How soon after a humiliating loss in Pennsylvania should he drop out?

How is this hyperbole helpful?

If he loses by 10 points he is still way ahead in popular vote and pledged delegates.  All indications are he will win SC by a greater margin that Hillary wins PA.  

Do you really think losing PA is meaningful or do you think it is just a matter of one state preferring Hillary, as the polls have indicated all along?  Because if the former, your view is not supported by all the other data available - including the fact that Obama is more popular nationally than ever before.  Which goes back to my hyperbole question...

[Gaspar]

Last night's debate was devastating to both candidates.  I watched it with my wife and a few of her friends (2 union teachers, hardcore libs).

When the debate was over all agreed that the only winner was the guy that wasn't there.

Hillary came across as desperate and ill-equipped. Then evasive.  Finally just unprepared.

Obama solidified his media manufactured persona by falling apart under mild questioning.

Hillary did no favors for herself, but she showed us nothing new, and we expected her inability to explain the road to her goals.  She was unable to pump any sunshine ;-)

But. . . . Obama seemed totally exposed.  No magic.  No charisma.  Deer in the headlights.  Amazing failure.  I am interested to see how the media band-aids serve to mend his wounds?

No matter, he will get the nomination for his party, but with this amateur night performance in a relatively mild forum, I strongly doubt his ability to stand up to McCain in a real debate.

Prior to this extended primary Obama had McCain beat by between 13% to 18%.  But after the infighting they are statistically even.  The Republicans couldn't have asked for a better gift.

"You go girl!"
In order to get power and retain it, it is necessary to love power; but love of power is not connected with goodness but with qualities that are the opposite of goodness, such as pride, cunning, and cruelty. – Leo Tolstoy

[FOTD]

Just wait until Obama faces down McSame in the debates. It will be sad. I just worry people will feel so sorry for McSame that they will be willing to live with the Repug Veep choice over Barack. Not gonna happen. Landslide coming....

[iplaw]

I appreciated the repeated questioning when they wouldn't answer a direct question, i.e., when they questioned O about his stance on registration of guns.  They made a point of mentioning that he never bothered to answer the question when they asked the same question of Hillary.

The questions could have been harder and more compelling, but it was clear from that segment that they wouldn't be answering them anyways.

[Breadburner]

Hill dog by 12.....

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD

Just wait until Obama faces down McSame in the debates. It will be sad. I just worry people will feel so sorry for McSame that they will be willing to live with the Repug Veep choice over Barack. Not gonna happen. Landslide coming....

For the sake of your candidate, I hope so.  

Perhaps someone should suggest that he prepare himself more for direct questions (not related  to fluffy speeches and talking points).  That's what got him off his skateboard last night.  He was expected to take a stance of his own on issues.  No projected platforms or "I want" speeches.

I admire him because it's obvious that he understands that he must remain unknown to be viable.  His personality and platform is currently projected on him  by his supporters. This allows him to be anything to anyone.

If he shows the slightest inkling of his own opinion, the cult of personality will be broken, and all of the clever Huffingtonesque or Soroesque nicknames for whoever his opponent is will be of little aid.

I wish him the best, because last night was hard to watch.  It was the wizard when they pulled away the curtain.