One week to Pennsylvania Primary

[rwarn17588]

C'mon, folks.

RM knows these things as much as anyone.

He's still a Clinton supporter, and he's simply baiting you for all it's worth to get the arguments going.

This will all be over by early May, and maybe sooner.

[RecycleMichael]

I am not a paid campaigner, have never met Hillary, and have given her no money.

I don't know if what I write should be considered "baiting".

I just see a good candidate that is being attacked by the media and ignored by the democrat posters on this forum. I also see a campaigner that infuriates the right-wing talking heads.

Of course, the rebel in me likes Hillary and the gentlemen in me defends a woman.

I like Obama just fine, I just am trying to level the playing field.

Hillary is going to have a good day tomorrow and I am too. Hers for winning Pennsylvania, mine for our best Earth Day ever.  

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael


I don't know if what I write should be considered "baiting".

...

I like Obama just fine, I just am trying to level the playing field.

It's baiting. []

BTW, I had a hunch that Hillary's campaign was doomed months ago when she announced that her theme song was by Celine Dion. [xx(]

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael


I don't know if what I write should be considered "baiting".

...

I like Obama just fine, I just am trying to level the playing field.

It's baiting. []

BTW, I had a hunch that Hillary's campaign was doomed months ago when she announced that her theme song was by Celine Dion. [xx(]

I am sure that Celine Dion will help her win over those small town voters, unlike Springsteen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Q6FcqTvanw

[]

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Because it is an Eastern state that started off +30 for Hillary.  

Polls don't matter. They are art, not science.

I remember FOTD posting polls the day before the New Hampshire primary showing Obama winning by 13 points (Hillary won by three).

I can show you polls done in the last week showing Pennsylvania everywhere from Clinton up by 20 to Obama ahead by 5.

Saying he closed the gap when there was no verifiable number is like saying your favorite team lost the Super Bowl, but you consider it a win because they beat the point spread.

[cannon_fodder]

I realize he is dragging this on for his own amusement, but it's my amusement too or I wouldn't be trolling in politics...

Thank god the polls don't matter, because Hillary has a problem in many of the rest of the states and the Union as a whole if they do.  Whew!

Unfortunately, actual votes do count, and they are also stacked against her.

quote:Saying he closed the gap when there was no verifiable number is like saying your favorite team lost the Super Bowl, but you consider it a win because they beat the point spread.

Actually, it would be like saying the heavy favorite could still lose, in spite of it only being half time.  I remember a super bowl not long ago, before the game even started everyone had picked a winner and declared it a perfect season.  Very similar to a primary I remember where before it even started a candidate was anointed - then the first half didn't go her way and she couldn't put enough points on the board down the stretch to make a difference.

I love your sports analogies.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

quote:Originally posted by cannon_fodder
Because it is an Eastern state that started off +30 for Hillary.  

Polls don't matter. They are art, not science.

I remember FOTD posting polls the day before the New Hampshire primary showing Obama winning by 13 points (Hillary won by three).

I can show you polls done in the last week showing Pennsylvania everywhere from Clinton up by 20 to Obama ahead by 5.

Saying he closed the gap when there was no verifiable number is like saying your favorite team lost the Super Bowl, but you consider it a win because they beat the point spread.

Yes. It was the first glimmer of polling those that say one thing, enter the ballot box and check something altogether different than was told the pollster.

Those in the know have moved on to McCain v. Obama....predicting running mates....and forecasting negative ads....

I will stick to my May 2 prognosis of being delivered from evil.

[RecycleMichael]

This from electoral-vote.com

With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties. With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties. Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true. Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses. Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play. If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes and the new House would choose the President.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

This from electoral-vote.com

With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties. With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties. Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true. Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses. Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play. If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes and the new House would choose the President.

Aren't those speculative "art" and not "science" numbers that don't mean anything?  Or is that only applicable if the "art" is bad news for Hillary?

[RecycleMichael]

Yes. All polling is made up numbers that differ greatly based on sampling.

Obama has everything going for him tomorrow. Look at the list PMcalk made. He is ahead in

*pledged delegates
*popular votes
*states won
*primaries won
*caucuses won
*donors
*money raised
*cash on hand
*Governor endorsements
*Senatorial endorsements


He is out-spending her by millions per week in Pennsylvania. He has paid staffers in every county.

How can a loss by even one vote be anything but embarrassing for Obama?

He is ahead in everything in Pennsylvania except for the only thing that counts, votes. Why? Because the democratic voters of Pennsylvania want someone else to be their candidate.

Obama people should be worried that his message isn't working anymore. You can't just take a bunch of independents to the caucus meetings and expect them to wear down the opponents here.

If the democrats had a normal, reasonable system for electing a candidate, Obama would lose. If they had primaries instead of caucuses, Hillary would be ahead. If the had winner take all elections, Hillary would be ahead.

Obama has run a great campaign and used the screwy rules of the National Democratic Party to get ahead. If the super-delegates start going with Hillary, he should be the last one to complain.

[cannon_fodder]

So the new spin:

Obama is so far ahead of Hillary in every category that a loss in Pennsylvania is embarrassing.  

Very interesting.  At what point should Hillary be embarrasses by all her previous losses since she went in as the front runner?

quote:If the democrats had a normal, reasonable system for electing a candidate, Obama would lose. If they had primaries instead of caucuses, Hillary would be ahead. If the had winner take all elections, Hillary would be ahead.

So, first of all the Democrat's system sucks and the Republican system is much better.  Under that system, basically Florida, Illinois, NY, Texas, and California are all that matter.  Also, states that chose caucuses (closer to how candidates were chosen back in the day) are crap.

IF the rules were totally different than they are, she'd be winning.  Stupid reality all getting in the way.  Me not having a PHD from Oxford is all that's keeping me from that tenured position at U Tulsa I've always wanted...

quote:
Obama has run a great campaign and used the screwy rules of the National Democratic Party to get ahead. If the super-delegates start going with Hillary, he should be the last one to complain.

Who has had more influence over Democratic party rules... the Clinton's or Obama?  They have had as much or more authority in the party for the last 15 years than anyone else - Obama has barely had a voice.  So if he loses playing by the rules Hillary helped setup... only Hillary gets to complain?

Again, these notions are very interesting.

[pmcalk]

Wow, RM, you're starting to sound....bitter.  I know you're baiting, but that's ok.  You are still my favorite trash guy.[]

I guess the rules that have been in play for the last twenty years--the ones that Hillary Clinton's husband won under--doen't suit her well.  Was he just a better campaigner?  Or maybe it was his message--what was that message?  Oh, yeah, hope & change.

Unfortunately for Hillary, democrats don't have a system whereby a few "big states" get to decide for the rest of the country who the democratic nominee is--an elitist system, if you ask me.  We have a system that allows all democrats throughout the country to have a say.

Back to sports analogies, your comments RM are equivalent to telling a football team who has excuted an almost flawless season, who is winning the superbowl by an insurmountable number, that they should be embarrassed for missing one field goal.

[RecycleMichael]

I admit to being a little obsessive about trying to find ways to defend my candidate. I ignore the negatives well.

I just think gardening is simpler when you plow around the stumps.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael


I just think gardening is simpler when you plow around the stumps.

No discussion of a Clinton is complete without a phallic reference.  Not sure how this ties in, but I'm sure it does... and I don't think it's family friendly either.

Your banter is amusing, assuming you are attempting to stir discussion and have not been taste testing the Kool-Aid.

[RecycleMichael]

I tried making kool-aid, but I couldn't get all that water into the little package.