One week to Pennsylvania Primary

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

Here is polling from this weekend...

Pollster       Dates      Clinton  Obama  
 
Rasmussen     4/14/08       50      41  
SurveyUSA     4/12-14/08    54      40  
ARG           4/11-13/08    57      37    
Quinnipiac    4/9-13/08     50      44  

What are the predictions from the TulsaNow pundits?

Rasmussen     4/20/08       49      44  
SurveyUSA     4/18-20/08    50      44      
Quinnipiac    4/18-20/08    51      44
Insider Adv   4/20/08       49      39
Zogby         4/19-20/08    48      42
Suffolk       4/19-20/08    52      42
PPP           4/19-20/08    46      49
StrategicV    4/18-20/08    48      41

[we vs us]

Or perhaps you might be interested in watching a scene from Rocky.

[pmcalk]

^^I love that Hillary compares herself to Rocky (psst, Hillary--Rocky lost the fight.)

[YoungTulsan]

Ahh... less than 24 hours and we will be done with this.

[RecycleMichael]

I predict that Hillary will be ahead in popular votes after today. Obama says he is ahead by 800,000, but Hillary beat him by 290,000 in Florida and 320,000 in Michigan that he doesn't want to count. Yes, the votes don't count for delegate purposes, but the individuals did vote.

She will win Pennsylvania by over 200,000 today.

[Gaspar]

I am so excited!  Neither of these people are my candidate, but this is the best "Soap Opera" style primary that I have ever been alive to watch.  

I just heard an informal email poll, and apparently there hundreds of thousands of "operation chaos" voters heading out to the polls today to make sure Hillary stays in.

I don't think the opinion polls have any way to truly predict anything.  It must be frustrating for them.

If Hill stays in this will be an exhausting primary (if it isn't already), but it will be a fascinating.  They are both getting really dirty and the filth is rubbing off on other members of the party.  She may well be successful in not only alienating herself from her party, but severely weakening Obama's character too.  She has been more damaging to herself and Obama then any member of the republican establishment.  Obama's attack ads are mild and silly, but she is really digging in.  I had no idea that Obama was linked to terrorist groups?

I'm watching the ads this morning at work, it's unbelievable!  I can't wait until she accuses him of eating babies!

[RecycleMichael]

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar
I just heard an informal email poll, and apparently there hundreds of thousands of "operation chaos" voters heading out to the polls today to make sure Hillary stays in.

That is boasting and puffing up their own importance. Stop listening to Rush Limbaugh.

217,000 voters switched parties in the last four months in Pennsylvania. 92% of them switched to democrat.

Polling was done on them and 52% of them said they were voting for Obama. It is because of his appeal to independents and probable dislike of Hillary.

Operation Chaos probably accounts for a few dozen people who would go through the trouble because Rush told them too. Now when Hillary wins big, they and him, will take the credit.

As is almost always the case, Rush is lying about his own importance.

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I predict that Hillary will be ahead in popular votes after today. Obama says he is ahead by 800,000, but Hillary beat him by 290,000 in Florida and 320,000 in Michigan that he doesn't want to count. Yes, the votes don't count for delegate purposes, but the individuals did vote.

She will win Pennsylvania by over 200,000 today.

First, for Hillary to win by 200,000 votes, she would have to either win by a landslide, or there would have to be unbelievable record turnout.  Your estimate of a 8% win would require a turnout of 2.5 million people.  The last primary in Pennsylvania saw a turnout of 1.2 million.  While I fully expect that there will be a large turnout, I think 2.5 million is beyond any reasonable expectation.

Yes, of course, if she does win by over 200,000, and if you count only the votes that were cast for Hillary in Michigan (which by the way was declared to be an unconstitutional by their state), ignore the huge numbers of votes that were cast for "anyone but Hillary", then throw in the Florida beauty contest, you might get a rough estimate that puts Hillary slightly ahead.  But even then that is just a rough guess, since many states were caucuses, and it is very difficult to determine the "popular vote" in those states.  And any lead will vanish once North Carolina votes.

[cannon_fodder]

lol, well put PM.

When you count votes from states you didn't even "compete in" - or where your opponent wasn't even on the ballot, things are desperate.

BUT... it does appear "operation chaos" is not really a factor:

quote:A recent Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters, conducted by Franklin and Marshall College, found that 62 percent of Democrats who registered statewide within the last three months planned to vote for Obama.

http://www.texarkanagazette.com/news/WireHeadlines/2008/04/20/pennsylvania-voter-registration-data-ind-34.php

So lets look at facts again!

Actual Votes Tally:
Obama 13,355,209/49.5%   Clinton 12,638,123/46.9%
= Obama +717,086/2.6%

With Florida (where they "did not compete):
Obama 13,931,423/48.5%   Clinton: 13,509,109/47.1%            
= Obama +422,314/+1.4%

Michigan simply does not count.  When Obama was, by agreement, not even on the ballot the case can't even really be made that it counts.  And SURELY if Clinton gets to count the Florida tally then we can estimate the Caucus votes.

All In:
Obama:14,265,507/48.6%   Clinton: 13,732,971/46.8%
=Obama +532,536   +1.8%

So all in, Obama is up 532,536 votes as our best estimate.  That is counting the +300K for Hillary from Florida and +100K for Obama from caucus estimates.

Pennsylvania has 4,200,000 registered democrats eligible to vote tomorrow.  She needs 532,536 to even have a claim of popular vote, she needs 650,000 to have a claim that is solid.   Or 13% and 16% victories respectively with 100% Democratic voter turnout.  

Assuming a record breaking 50% turnout, she would need double those margins to take the lead.  The highest estimate for turnout is 60%...  to gain the popular vote she would have to win by 26%.

What I'm getting at, is your contention seems unlikely.  Unless you count Florida and Michigan and ignore the caucuses.  In which case the only problem is your prior statements that the popular vote is not what decides elections... which would drive us back to the point that no matter what, Obama will still lead in the Delegates after today.

The question is, what is the minimum # Hillary needs to win to claim a victory?  Can she smile if she wins by < 10%?

I think your 8% number is close to what she needs to smile, less than 5% and it's over.

[Conan71]

quote:

but Hillary beat him by 290,000 in Florida and 320,000 in Michigan that he doesn't want to count. Yes, the votes don't count for delegate purposes, but the individuals did vote.

I had a dream last night I paid $1mm cash for a new house, does that mean I get to move in tomorrow?

The votes in Mich and Fla are irrelevant.  If Ms. Clinton had not incorrectly viewed this as a coronation tour (this morning she was quoted from Harrisburg as saying she was undergoing the 'worlds longest job interview') she might be actually leading in popular and delegate votes.

Even if she were to lose today and in NC, I don't see her backing down prior to Denver.  Anyone who thinks she will has not been listening very carefully to what it is she's trying to do.  She keeps saying she's more electable than Obama and she feels she's got another four months to prove it.

[RecycleMichael]

You all keep talking about how Michigan and Florida shouldn't count. The delegate allocations from those elections were stopped by Obama supporters, but the citizens still voted.

The individual votes should count, even if they didn't produce delegates recognized by the Democratic National Committee.

A vote by a legal citizen should be counted. To not would be undemocratic and unamerican.

[Hometown]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

quote:

but Hillary beat him by 290,000 in Florida and 320,000 in Michigan that he doesn't want to count. Yes, the votes don't count for delegate purposes, but the individuals did vote.

I had a dream last night I paid $1mm cash for a new house, does that mean I get to move in tomorrow?

The votes in Mich and Fla are irrelevant.  If Ms. Clinton had not incorrectly viewed this as a coronation tour (this morning she was quoted from Harrisburg as saying she was undergoing the 'worlds longest job interview') she might be actually leading in popular and delegate votes.

Even if she were to lose today and in NC, I don't see her backing down prior to Denver.  Anyone who thinks she will has not been listening very carefully to what it is she's trying to do.  She keeps saying she's more electable than Obama and she feels she's got another four months to prove it.

Familiarity breeds contempt.  

So far we know that Obama flubs difficult questions.  That he has not returned one punch.  That he plays old politics and calls it something new and different.  That slowly disturbing facts are drifting out about his background.  

He has only really been in the public eye since December and the more we get to know him, the less he looks like someone who can win the presidency.

On the other hand, with much more practice and the paying of more dues he would be a stellar candidate.  Let's give him a chance to learn on the job in the vice-presidency.

Does anyone else out there feel like their party has been hijacked by MoveOn?  I mean have the inventors of General Betrayus ever won anything?  No.  And do they really think they are going to get the Republicans to hold off on the difficult questions this fall?  MoveOn, I was there at your beginning but this isn't San Francisco, this is the heartland and you don't get it.

[pmcalk]

For goodness sakes, RM, if you want to violate the rules and count the unconstitutional election in Michigan, at least only count the amount by which she won--around 238,000 people showed up to vote for "anyone but Hillary."  She exceeded that by only about 90,000 votes.  

Maybe if your candidate had actually proposed a reasonable approach to voting in Michigan & Florida, we could have seen an election there.  It was a good strategy of hers to propose something ridiculous, then claim that Obama was trying to stop them from voting.  I don't think anyone is buying it, though.

[Gaspar]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

quote:Originally posted by Gaspar
I just heard an informal email poll, and apparently there hundreds of thousands of "operation chaos" voters heading out to the polls today to make sure Hillary stays in.

That is boasting and puffing up their own importance. Stop listening to Rush Limbaugh.

217,000 voters switched parties in the last four months in Pennsylvania. 92% of them switched to democrat.

Polling was done on them and 52% of them said they were voting for Obama. It is because of his appeal to independents and probable dislike of Hillary.

Operation Chaos probably accounts for a few dozen people who would go through the trouble because Rush told them too. Now when Hillary wins big, they and him, will take the credit.

As is almost always the case, Rush is lying about his own importance.

Actually I was watching Fox news which, I guess, is just as bad as Rush in some people's eyes.  They asked people to email if they were a part of "operation chaos."  

I agree, I can't see it having that much of an affect, but the opinion polls have been all over the map in the last couple of weeks.  

The candidates are both very negative at this point.  So if this carries to the date of the convention how much damage will be dealt before the victor emerges.  Meanwhile. . .

When you encounter a superior vessel sometimes it is better to fire only your smallest guns and keep the gunwales closed on your big canons until the ship comes about to demand your surrender.  Once she is broadside you fire your big guns without opening the shutters, sending a hail of splinters and cannon balls through her hull at point blank, taking her by surprise and sending her to the ocean floor without reprise.

Hillary is the superior vessel for Dems, but she has significant weaknesses that, in many people's eyes, make her unelectable.  These are the big guns that the Republicans are waiting to use.  Obama may be an inferior ship but he dosen't have any big holes in his character yet, and, if preserved, his cult of personality could take him right into office.

If the Republicans were to demonize him the way Hillary is today, it would be very destructive to them.  As long as she stays in, they don't have to.  They can just use their smallest guns and slowly pull up broadside while her canons are turned the other way.  By the time she does fire, it will be viewed as desperation.

Her nomination is absolutely necessary to her and to the Republicans.

[USRufnex]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

You all keep talking about how Michigan and Florida shouldn't count. The delegate allocations from those elections were stopped by Obama supporters, but the citizens still voted.

The individual votes should count, even if they didn't produce delegates recognized by the Democratic National Committee.

A vote by a legal citizen should be counted. To not would be undemocratic and unamerican.

Have you changed your party affiliation to Republican yet?  [:O]

Because this wasn't Barack Obama's decision; it was the democratic party's decision.  And Hillary Clinton AGREED to the rules, just like all the other candidates...