Indiana and North Carolina primaries

[RecycleMichael]

I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.

Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.

[cannon_fodder]

The pollsters and linesmakers have Obama winning NC by more than Hillary wins Indiana.  Given the population disparity, that certainly gives Obama the popular vote edge.  Straight percentage wise he should do much better.  Following RCP polls conglomerations = Obama +162,500 votes between the states.

The bigger question is how will the delegates dice up.  

Following the polls, Obama gets 8% in NC and Hillary 5% in Indiana.  At 134 and 73 delegates respectively that translates roughly to (stupid delegate rules) 109 for Obama and 98 for Hillary.  Or Obama +11.

Together eliminating the delegate gains as well as 2/3rds of her popular vote gains.  Add the recent split in super delegates and he will finish today (poll numbers) further ahead today than he was going into Pennsylvania.  

So now the math!

Following those poll numbers:  Pledged/All delegates
Obama: 1600/1856
Clinton: 1436/1707

217 Pledges delegates remaining.  OR, KY, WV, PR, MT, and SD.  They look to split those states... so lets just saw them in half.  

1964 Obama / 1816 Clinton (+1 Clinton for rounding).  Obama + 148.

268 Super Delegates outstanding.  Clinton would need a reversal of the trend and a better than 55% take of the remaining super delegates to end with more delegates than Obama.

She would need 70% in all the remaining states (including IN and NC) to come out ahead in pledged delegates. If she loses ground tonight as predicted she will need 80+% of the remaining vote to over take his pledge delegate lead.

Clinton should do well next week in WV (28 delegates) but doesn't appear she will approach the 70% mark.  Obama will counter with as well of a performance in larger Oregon.  Clinton should do well in PR and KY, but Obama should do well in MT and WY.  

I think this analysis has it right:

quote:The highly-talented but inexperienced "Big Brown" decisively won the [race], defeating [the only female] in the race who had to settle for second-place. [The Female] had run a strong and gritty race, but was simply outrun by the brilliant winner. Immediately after the finish, as the [candidates] were slowing down, [the second place finisher] broke both of her front ankles and had to be euthanized as she lay crippled.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_rev__bil_080504_kentucky_derby_3a_pred.htm

Recall Hillary picked Eight Bells in the derby, clearly pointing towards the only female in the field to win the day.  She can't win unless Obama joins the occult, drops out, or for some other reason pledged delegates break hear way big time.  Which might herald problems for democrats in the future.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.

Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.

RM,

Last week I saw a Hillary DC officio having lunch with a local die hard Repug.

Give it up, Rm. Give it up.

The Devil


In honor of their performance at Cain's Tonight a little Hot Tuna Tune....with a minor change

Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
I said, Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away
Here You come Babe as big as sin
I can tell what you been doin by the shape your in
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...

If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here,
If you've been doin' like I think ya been doin, ya can't do that round here
Here you come mama big as hell
I can tell what you've been doin by the way you smell
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...

Now whats that smells like fish oh babe
I really would like to know
Now whats that smells like fish pretty mama
That ain't pork & baby that ain't pie
Thats the stuff that got you by
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...

Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
I said Yes you gotta leave my house This mornin'
Get your yes yes out of my door
Ashes to ashes & dust to dust
What ya gonna do when that damn thing rusts
So Keep on truckin Obama,
truck my blues away...

[RecycleMichael]

The Kentucky derby was 19 boys against one girl. Kind of like the odds for me on this forum.

The horse name closest to Obama was named Monba. He finished last.

Obama also voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. Maybe he could be the horse named Cool Coal Man. He finished 15th.

[FOTD]

Big Brown won.....don't be a moron.

[cannon_fodder]

Heh, and even if Obama is either of those other horses, it's better than a 2nd place and a short trip to the glue factory.  Are you trying to say even if Hillary wins over Obama she'll be put down in the general election?

Why are analogies on athletics our principle vehicle of discussion?

[RecycleMichael]

"Baseball is very big with my people. It figures. It's the only way we can get to shake a bat at a white man without starting a riot."

Dick Gregory

[cannon_fodder]

The polls took a turn for the worst today RM.

Polling today has Obama +2 in Indiana and +14 In North Carolina.  Exit polling shows a large Obama victory in NC and a race in Indiana within the margin of error (both mirroring prior polls).  Poll numbers can be full of crap, but not good news.

IF there is a wash in Indiana (Clinton by > 5) and a 10+ pt loss in North Carolina - I predict Hillary throws in the towel.  She has some arguments left (but Florida, but Michigan, but the big states, but I can still), but they are realistically fading.  I imagine the supers would shift at that point too...  

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

"Baseball is very big with my people. It figures. It's the only way we can get to shake a bat at a white man without starting a riot."

Dick Gregory

Love it.

Saw Gregory several times when he came to TU in the late 60's and early 70's to speak.

He used to be a heavy smoker and way overweight. Became a health guru. A true stand up American classic. My favorite book of his was "You Don't Have to Be Black to be a ****** (n word)".

[pmcalk]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I think Hillary will win Indiana by a greater percentage than Obama will win North Carolina, but am interested in who get s the most popular votes today. I think it is a toss-up.

Interestingly, both states allow republicans and independents to vote in the democratic primary today. In Indiana, voters don't even register by party. In North Carolina, and amazing 21% of the voters are registered as independent.

I believe that only undeclared can vote in NC primaries--not republicans.  Which is good news for Obama--he does well with independents.  I am not sure how much of the Limbaugh effect is having, but at least some republicans are voting for Hillary just to mess up the democrats.  I imagine that Hillary will win Indiana, but that NC will go for Obama by a larger percent.  I think that Obama will get more popular votes today, given that the turnout in NC is already huge.

[pmcalk]

RM--you have been beating me in predictions the last several weeks, but looks like you were very much wrong tonight.  Double digit leads--maybe over 15% in NC, while Indiana looks like little more than 2% win for Hillary (if that).

Can you think of any argument now for why Hillary should stay in the race (other than to destroy Obama)?

[iplaw]

She's going nowhere.  "Full speed on to the White House," said  Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by iplaw

She's going nowhere.  "Full speed on to the White House," said  Clinton in her Indiana acceptance speech.

Full speed on with four flat tires, a leaky gas tank and a thrown rod.

[cannon_fodder]

"The voters of Indiana have broken the tie and put me out in front.  From here it is full steam ahead to the white house!"

I think that's why I can't stand her, that level of spin just bothers me.  There is spin, and then there is just lying.

It wasn't a tie, you were behind.  After yesterday, you are behind MORE than you were starting the night.  In fact, you are behind MORE than you were going into Penn.  So you the "tie" was not broken in your favor. And you did not come from behind to win - you have been favored in Indiana since the first poll ever conducted and Obama finished within the margin of error of this best polling in Indiana.

It appears she is willing to spend her own money to stay in the game, but for how long (she loan $6.4million over the last week)?  I'm sure I'll have to run numbers for RM a little later, but my predictions from yesterday still hold pretty close.  She needs 70+% of the remaining vote and a 60+% break in Super Delegates to get to the magic number... or 145% of the remaining delegates to get to her number of delegates (see, that would indicate more delegates than remain).

[iplaw]

Maybe she's hoping Rev. Wright will make another campaign speech for her this week?