It's official (unofficially): OBAMA WINS

[cannon_fodder]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/



The trends coupled with the newest models give Obama a 95% chance of an electoral win.  Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico all breaking convincingly to Obama.  NC, West Virginia and Missouri all breaking more and more towards Obama (still statistically in play).

Realclearpolitics.com is more cautious to predict states, but has enough States in the Obama column (249 solid + 37 leaning is >270) that it really doesn't matter .  
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Barring some surprise, national security crisis, or revelation the election goes to Obama in both the popular vote and electoral votes. Two impartial sources using all relevant polling data conclude the same thing - and it will only get more clear after last nights debate (all the talking heads agree that nothing changed last night, the last real chance for it to do so).  

From here on out it is media hype and talking heads seeking market share.  Very little actual "news" on the issues will come out.  Stil wish I had a third party to vote for though...

I for one, welcome our new Democratic overlords (would have said the same of a Republican overlord).

[iplaw]

I still think it's going to come down to the wire.  Polls are swinging wildly, which is uncharacteristic.  When polls switch from a 12 point lead to a 3 point lead in a 1 or 2 day time frame, something is wrong.  There isn't that much movement going on with the electorate.

Also remember that these state polls lag the national and the national polls are getting closer every day.

I still think Obama is in the lead and has a great shot, but I don't think it's the race some are portraying it to be.

With Obama supposedly winning these debates by such huge margins, the economy on the down side, and W in office, he should be ahead in the polls significantly.

There are still significant reservations about Obama.  Maybe last night changed that, but only time will tell.

[pmcalk]

I don't know that its over.  I think that Obama is playing it smart by reminding voters of New Hampshire--when the polls had him ahead, but Clinton won.  Still, Obama has an excellent organization and ground team.  He is starting to move into even more red states--Georgia, West Virginia, Kentucky, & North Dakota.  If his internal polls are showing he has a shot at those states, then the race really doesn't look good for McCain.

Still, 19 days is an eternity in politics.

[Hometown]

We need to be mindful of Republican efforts to suppress the vote.  Did you see Jim Hightower's article in today's TulsaWorld?

Here's an excerpt:

"Rather than urging folks everywhere to join in America's festive democratic exercise, there are ugly and aggressive efforts across the land to harass, intimidate and outright block legitimate voters. Ironically, at a time when massive turn-out-the-vote drives are being mounted, various Republican partisans are pushing some widespread voter-suppression drives."

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20081016_222_A19_hDeckh267853

With Obama mounting a serious challenge to their damaging grip on the U.S. we'll see more and more dirty politics out of the Republican camp.

[iplaw]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

We need to be mindful of Republican efforts to suppress the vote.  Did you see Jim Hightower's article in today's TulsaWorld?

Here's an excerpt:

"Rather than urging folks everywhere to join in America's festive democratic exercise, there are ugly and aggressive efforts across the land to harass, intimidate and outright block legitimate voters. Ironically, at a time when massive turn-out-the-vote drives are being mounted, various Republican partisans are pushing some widespread voter-suppression drives."

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20081016_222_A19_hDeckh267853

With Obama mounting a serious challenge to their damaging grip on the U.S. we'll see more and more dirty politics out of the Republican camp.

Maybe if your party gave a damn about voter fraud I would give more weight to these claims.

As an editorial, there is scant evidence for any of his claims in the story.  Allegations are simply that, and without evidence, no one is obliged to believe a word of it.